基于多元回归对梨树县农业总产值影响因素的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors of Total Agricultural Output Value in Lishu County Based on Multiple Regression

作　　者：方燕玲 FANG Yanling(College of Economics and Trade,Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering,Guangzhou 510225,China)

机构地区：[1]仲恺农业工程学院经贸学院,广州510225

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第16期195-199,共5页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：为探究梨树县农业发展的现状和问题,并对其农业总产值进行分析,采用多元线性回归的实证研究方法,利用软件SPSS 22.0,从吉林省统计局和中国国家统计局的数据库中选取了2003—2020年梨树县农业总产值以及相关影响因素的数据,以农业总产值为因变量,以乡村人口、农业机械总动力、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量(实物量)和市/县总播种面积为自变量,对以上影响因素进行计量分析。结果表明,农业机械总动力每增加1万kW,农业总产值就会平均减少1977.950万元;有效灌溉面积每增加1 khm^(2),农业总产值就会平均增加7454.066万元;市/县总播种面积每增加1 hm^(2),农业总产值就会平均增加5.311万元。In order to explore the current situation and problems of agricultural development in Lishu County and analyze its total agricultural output value,the empirical research method of multiple linear regression was adopted and the software SPSS 22.0 was used to select the data of total agricultural output value of Lishu County and related influencing factors from the databases of Jilin Provincial Bureau of Statistics and National Bureau of Statistics of China during 2003-2020.Taking total agricultural output value as dependent variable and rural population,total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area,fertilizer application amount(material amount)and total sown area of cities and counties as independent variables,the above influencing factors were analyzed quantitatively.The results show that when the total power of agricultural machinery increases by 10000 kW,the total agricultural output value decreases by 19779.5 million yuan on average.Every increase of 1000 hectares of effective irrigated area will increase the total agricultural output value by 74.54066 million yuan on average.Every increase of 1 hectare in the total sown area of cities and counties will increase the total agricultural output value by 53311 yuan on average.

关 键 词：农业总产值 农业机械总动力 有效灌溉面积 市/县总播种面积 多元线性回归模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]