经济结构变化对我国税收收入的影响:一个基于国民收入循环的分析框架  

Impacts of Economic Structural Change on China’s Tax Revenue:A Framework Based on the National Income Circular Analysis

作　　者：骆晓强 鲍勤 汪寿阳[1,2,3] Luo Xiaoqiang;Bao Qin;Wang Shouyang(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Center for Forecasting Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [3]中国科学院预测科学研究中心,北京100190

出　　处：《管理评论》2023年第7期28-42,共15页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72073127);国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目(71988101);中国科学院青年创新促进会项目(E0290601)。

摘　　要：税收收入与经济增长之间的关系是财政决策的核心要素,已有研究大多基于总体宏观税负或税收浮动率刻画这一关联,而鲜有从经济产业结构和税收收入结构入手展开系统分析。本文基于社会核算矩阵分析国民经济与税收收入之间的映射关系,从税收参与国民收入分配循环的过程入手,构建了经济结构变化对宏观税负与税收浮动率影响的一般分析框架,并建立模型,运用我国税收和国民经济的相关数据进行了实证检验。本文的实证检验与分析结果表明,由于我国行业税率之间存在差异,我国经济结构的变化特别是工业比重的先稳后降,是1994年以后我国宏观税负先升后降、税收浮动率先远高于1后下降小于1的重要原因。基于这一分析,在我国经济结构持续调整、工业比重继续下降的背景下,若无重大税制改革调整,预计“十四五”期间我国宏观税负还将继续下降,税收浮动率小于1,税收收入增速仍将低于国内生产总值名义增速。The relationship between tax revenue and economic growth is fundamental for fiscal policies.The existing researches mainly concentrate on the general macro tax burden or tax buoyancies,while little attention has been paid to the industrial structures and the revenue structures in the economy.This paper studies the mapping between the national economy and the tax revenue based on the social accounting matrix and builds up a general framework to estimate how economic structural change would affect the macro tax burden and tax buoyancies by analyzing how tax revenue participates in the national income circular.Moreover,this paper provides empirical analysis by using China’s historical data of tax revenue and economic structures.The results indicate that since the industrial tax rate varies,the eco⁃nomic structural change,especially the share change of industry in the gross domestic product,is the fundamental reason for the change of China’s macro tax burden and tax buoyancy.Since the industry share was steady at first and then decreased later on after the 1994 tax re⁃form,the macro tax burden first increased and then decreased,and the tax buoyancy was greater than one at first and then decreased to be⁃low one.With China’s economic structures continuously changing and the industry share decreasing,it is predicted that if there is no major tax reforms,China’s macro tax burden would continue to decrease during the 14th Five⁃Year Plan(2021⁃25)time,the tax buoyancy will continue to be below one,and the growth rate of tax revenue will be smaller than the nominal gross domestic product.

关 键 词：税收收入 经济结构 宏观税负 税收浮动率 税收弹性 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F124