坝上高原察汗淖尔湖泊面积变化及驱动要素分析  

Analysis of Lake Area Change and Driving Factors in Chahannur on Bashang Plateau

作　　者：陈鹏 张冰[1,2,3] 马荣 石建省[4] 司乐天 CHEN Peng;ZHANG Bing;MA Rong;SHI Jian-sheng;SI Le-tian(The Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geology,CAGS,Shijiazhuang 050061,China;Key Laboratory of Groundwater Sciences and Engineering,Ministry of Natural Resources,Shijiazhuang 050061,China;China Aero Geophysical Survey and Remote Sensing Center for Land and Resources,Beijing 100083,China;Key Laboratory of Quaternary Chronology and Hydrological Environmental Evolution,China Geological Survey,Shijiazhuang 050061,China;Hebei GEO University,Shijiazhuang 050031,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院水文地质环境地质研究所,石家庄050061 [2]自然资源部地下水科学与工程重点实验室,石家庄050061 [3]中国地质调查局第四纪年代与水文环境演变重点实验室,石家庄050061 [4]中国地质调查局自然资源航空物探遥感中心,北京100083 [5]河北地质大学城市地质与工程学院,石家庄050031

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2023年第26期11108-11117,共10页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：中国地质调查项目(DD20221773)。

摘　　要：在大气变化和人类活动的双重影响下,为定量分析坝上高原典型湖泊察汗淖尔近30年的演变及驱动要素贡献率,通过遥感影像与资料收集,对湖泊面积变化特征及影响因素进行分析,运用多元线性回归法量化驱动湖泊变化的主要因素及其相对贡献率。结果表明:察汗淖尔在过去30年间逐渐萎缩,几乎干涸,变化速率为-0.94 km^(2)/a;温度升高,暴雨次数显著减少,不利于察汗淖尔湖泊水面面积的维持;高额的农业用水量是导致湖泊萎缩的主要原因,各影响因素贡献率大小依次为农业用水量>地下水埋深>降水量>径流量>年均温;农业用水量相关系数为-0.71,贡献率为51.1%,地下水埋深相关系数为-0.67,贡献率为33.3%。大气条件是湖泊变化的重要背景因素,人类活动进一步加剧湖泊变化。Under the dual influence of atmospheric change and human activities,in order to quantitatively analyze the evolution and contribution rate of driving factors of typical lake Chahannur on the Bashang Plateau in recent 30 years,the characteristics and influencing factors of lake area change are analyzed through remote sensing image and data collection,and the main driving factors and their relative contribution rate are quantified by multiple linear regression methods.The results show that Chahannur has gradually shrunk and almost dried up over the past 30 years at a rate of-0.94 km^(2)/year.The increase of temperature significantly reduces the number of rainstorms,which is not conducive to the maintenance of the water surface area of Chahannur.High agricultural water consumption is the main cause of Lake shrinkage.The contribution rate of each influencing factor is in turn agricultural water consumption>groundwater depth>precipitation>runoff>temperature.The correlation coefficient of agricultural water consumption is-0.71,the contribution rate is 51.1%,the correlation coefficient of groundwater depth is-0.67,and the contribution rate is 33.3%.Atmospheric conditions are important background factors for Lake changes,which are further aggravated by human activities.

关 键 词：察汗淖尔 湖泊变化 驱动要素 贡献率 

分 类 号：P343.3[天文地球—水文科学] P339[天文地球—地球物理学]