飞来峡水库洪水资源化利用与风险分析  

Flood resource utilization and risk analysis of Feilaixia Reservoir

作　　者：刘达[1,2,3,4] 黄本胜 赵璧奎[1,2,3,4] 谭超 邱静[1,2,3,4] 李明 LIU Da;HUANG Bensheng;ZHAO Bikui;TAN Chao;QIU Jing;LI Ming(Guangdong Research Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower,Guangzhou 510635,China;Guangdong Key Laboratory of Hydrodynamic Research,Guangzhou 510635,China;State and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory of Estuarine Hydraulic Technology,Guangzhou 510635,China;Guangdong Provincial Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Safety,Guangzhou 510635,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水利水电科学研究院,广东广州510635 [2]广东省水动力学应用研究重点实验室,广东广州510635 [3]河口水利技术国家地方联合工程实验室,广东广州510635 [4]广东省水安全科技协同创新中心,广东广州510635

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第5期18-24,108,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目(2021A1515012077);粤港水安全保障联合实验室资金支持项目(2020B1212030005);广东省水利科技创新项目(2022-01,2021-01,2017-13);广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目(2022A1515010898);广州市科技计划项目(202201011541);省属科研机构稳定性支持专项资金院自设课题项目(2021L027,221016)。

摘　　要：针对北江流域河道型水库飞来峡水库洪水资源化利用问题,基于多约束的河道型水库水资源高效利用原则,构建了水库防洪调度模型。基于决策树法分析了加快汛末回蓄和提高正常蓄水位两种优化调度方案下飞来峡水库洪水资源可利用量的变化规律,并采用随机洪水过程方法模拟计算了两种方案下洪水资源利用的风险概率。结果表明:抬高飞来峡水库正常蓄水位至24.8 m时属于风险边际增量较小的推荐方案,可年均增加水资源利用量6.46亿m 3,对于缓解供水紧张局面具有显著效果。In response to the issue of flood resource utilization of the Feilaixia Reservoir,a river-type reservoir in the Beijiang River Basin,a reservoir flood control operation model was constructed based on the principle of efficient utilization of water resources in river-type reservoirs with multiple constraints.Based on the decision tree method,the variation law of the available amount of flood resources under two optimization scheduling schemes of accelerating re-storage in end of flood season and raising normal water storage level was analyzed.The stochastic flood process method was used to simulate and calculate the risk probability of flood resource utilization under both schemes.The results show that raising normal storage level of Feilaixia Reservoir to 24.8 meters is a recommended solution with a small marginal increase in risk,which can increase the annual water resource utilization by 646 million cubic meters and has a significant effect on alleviating water supply shortages.

关 键 词：洪水资源化利用 河道型水库 水库防洪调度模型 北江流域 飞来峡水库 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]