京津冀水 食物系统风险评估  

Risk assessment of water-food system in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

作　　者：李玲慧 何国华[1] 赵勇[1] 何凡[1] 李海红[1] 常奂宇 LI Linghui;HE Guohua;ZHAO Yong;HE Fan;LI Haihong;CHANG Huanyu(State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Department of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [2]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第5期49-57,共9页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204);国家自然科学基金项目(52025093,52109042,52061125101)。

摘　　要：构建了京津冀水食物系统风险评估体系,考虑农业水足迹因素,分3个时段对2000-2020年京津冀水食物系统风险进行了评估。结果表明:2000-2020年京津冀水食物系统总体面临损害性风险,系统会发生风险并造成明显破坏;河北邯郸、张家口和石家庄等市为系统风险最大的地区,北京最小;在时间变化上,2000-2020年京津冀大部分地区为Ⅲ级风险,Ⅳ级风险地区在第一时期(2000-2006年)为4个,第二时期(2007-2013年)为2个,第三时期(2014-2020年)为0个,系统稳定性随时间有所提高;在空间变化上,前两个时期风险最高的地区为张家口,第三时期为邯郸,3个时期中风险最小的地区分别为邢台、北京、唐山;2000-2020年系统主要致险因素为农业灌溉缺水率,主要承险因素为节水灌溉程度、农业灌溉设施建设状况和本地水资源量满足需求率。A risk assessment system of water-food system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was constructed.Considering the factor of agricultural water footprint,risk assessment of the water food system in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region from 2000 to 2020 in three time periods was performed.The results showed that the overall water-food system in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region faced a risk of damage from 2000 to 2020,indicating that the system would be at risk and cause significant damage.Cities such as Handan,Zhangjiakou,and Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province had the highest systemic risk,while Beijing had the lowest.In terms of time variation,most areas in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the research period were classified as level III risk,with four areas of level IV risk in the first period(2000-2006),two areas in the second period(2007-2013),and 0 in the third period(2014-2020).The system stability has improved over time.In terms of spatial changes,the area with the highest risk in the first two periods was Zhangjiakou,and in the third period was Handan.The regions with the least risk in the three periods are Xingtai,Beijing,and Tangshan.In terms of the contribution of risk indicators,the main factors causing risk of the system from 2000 to 2020 were water shortage rate of agricultural irrigation,and the main factors bearing risk were the degree of water-saving irrigation,the construction status of agricultural irrigation facilities,and the rate of local water resources meeting demand.

关 键 词：水食物系统 损害性风险 农业水足迹 农业灌溉缺水率 京津冀地区 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] F327[经济管理—产业经济]