基于动态差异度系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断  

Evaluation and diagnosis of regional water resources carrying capacity based on dynamic difference degree coefficient

作　　者：崔毅[1,2] 唐慧彥[1,2] 金菊良 周玉良[1,2] 杨鹏博[3] CUI Yi;TANG Huiyan;JIN Juliang;ZHOU Yuliang;YANG Pengbo(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]合肥工业大学水资源与环境系统工程研究所,安徽合肥230009 [3]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,湖北武汉430010

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第5期152-160,177,共10页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52109009,U2240223);安徽省自然科学基金项目(2108085QE254)。

摘　　要：为定量识别区域水资源承载状态及其障碍因子,充分挖掘评价样本与等级标准之间的微观不确定性,提出了随实际样本值连续变化的动态差异度系数计算方法,构建了基于联系数值的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断模型,并在安徽省各市进行了实证研究。结果表明:安徽省水资源承载力联系数值由2011年的-0.171逐步增长至2018年的0.067,说明近年来安徽省水资源承载形势仍相当严峻,但各市均已向良好态势发展,且2013年后趋势更为显著;皖北、皖中和皖南地区2011-2018年的联系数均值分别为-0.235、0.071、0.114,说明安徽省不同地区水资源承载状态差异明显,呈皖南优于皖中、皖北较差的空间分布;补充水资源量、提高植被覆盖、控制水资源开发、增加生态用水和发展节水灌溉是改善安徽省水资源承载形势的有效手段;基于动态差异度系数的区域水资源承载力评价与诊断模型应用结果合理,为保障区域水安全提供了决策支撑。In order to quantitatively identify regional water resources carrying status and its obstacle factors,and to fully mine the micro-uncertainty between evaluation sample and grade criteria,this study proposed a calculation method of dynamic difference degree coefficient that continuously varied with the actual sample value.Then an evaluation and diagnosis model of regional water resources carrying capacity(WRCC)using connection number value was established,and an empirical study was carried out in Anhui Province.The results showed that the connection number value of WRCC in Anhui Province gradually increased from-0.171 in 2011 to 0.067 in 2018,indicating that although the water resources carrying situation in Anhui Province was still quite severe in recent years,the status of each city had been all improved,and the trend after 2013 was more significant.In addition,the average connection number values from 2011 to 2018 in Northern Anhui,Central Anhui,and Southern Anhui were-0.235,0.071,and 0.114,respectively.It reflected that the water resources carrying situations in different regions of Anhui Province were markedly different,presenting a spatial distribution that the carrying situation of Southern Anhui was superior to that of Central Anhui,while the carrying situation of Northern Anhui was weak.Supplementing water resources amount,improving vegetation coverage,controlling water resources exploitation,increasing ecological water supply,and developing water-saving irrigation were effective means to improve the water resources carrying situation in Anhui Province.The application results of regional WRCC evaluation and diagnosis model based on dynamic difference degree coefficient are reasonable,which provides decision support for guaranteeing regional water security.

关 键 词：水资源承载力评价 障碍因子诊断 动态差异度系数 联系数 安徽省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]