财政政策、经常账户失衡及其治理——来自局部投影工具变量法的经验证据  

Fiscal Policy,Current Account Imbalance and Its Governance:Empirical Evidence from Local Projections Instrumental Variable Method

作　　者：任建武 刘晓辉[1] REN Jianwu;LIU Xiaohui(Institute of Chinese Financial Studies,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学中国金融研究院,成都611130

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2023年第10期1-13,共13页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“我国环境规制对经常账户的影响与应对策略研究”(19BJL131);国家社会科学基金项目“供给侧结构性改革背景下我国宏观金融杠杆波动对技术创新的影响研究”(19BJL029);国家自然科学基金项目“新常态下中国货币政策传导的微观机理与信贷配置效应研究”(71973109)。

摘　　要：识别财政政策对经常账户失衡的影响对于理论检验和政策制定具有重要意义。以往的经验研究普遍存在内生性问题或狭小样本量问题,难以提供可靠的证据支持。基于1990—2018年144个国家的面板数据,采用局部投影工具变量法,以军费支出作为政府支出工具变量,识别财政政策对经常账户的影响。研究发现,积极的财政政策会导致经常账户逆差,这一效应较明显且具有持续性。在经过军费支出排他性、外生性以及其他一系列讨论之后,该结论依然成立。异质性分析表明,这一影响在较为固定的汇率制度和较高的经济开放水平下更大。研究为更好地利用财政政策进行国际政策协调治理全球失衡和平衡“稳增长”与“防风险”的关系提供了坚实的证据支持。Identifying the impact of fiscal policy on current account imbalance is of great significance for theory testing and policy formulation.Numerous empirical studies have common problems such as endogeneity or small sample size,making them difficult to provide reliable evidence support.Using panel data of 144 countries and regions from 1990 to 2018,this paper adopts the local projections instrumental variable method,and takes military expenditure as the instrumental variable of government expenditure to identify the impact of fiscal policy on current account.The results show that positive fiscal policy will lead to current account deficit,and the effect is obvious and persistent.After a series of discussions on the exclusivity,exogeneity and other aspects of military expenditure,the conclusion remains valid.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of fiscal policy on current account is greater under a more fixed exchange rate regime and a higher openness of economy.The study provides solid evidence for better use of fiscal policies to governance global imbalances with international policy coordination and to balance the relationship between“maintaining stable growth”and“guarding against risks”.

关 键 词：财政政策 经常账户失衡 局部投影法 军费支出 工具变量 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]