绿色发展、居民福利增进与中国政府债务上限测算  

Green Development,Residents’Welfare Improvement and the Measurement of Government Debt Ceiling in China

作　　者：李程 马世博 LI Cheng;MA Shibo(School of Economics and Management,Tiangong University,Tianjin 300387,China;School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学经济与管理学院,天津300387 [2]四川大学经济学院,成都610065

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2023年第10期14-27,共14页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目“资产负债表关联与风险溢出双重视角下的政府杠杆率结构性优化研究”(21JHQ068)。

摘　　要：在政府债务可持续发展的分析框架下,分别从绿色可持续发展和居民福利可持续增进两个维度出发,构建绿色发展视角和居民福利增进视角下的财政反应函数,并测算政府债务率理论上限、绿色债务上限和居民福利债务上限。结果表明:中国政府债务率理论上限为66.45%,绿色债务上限为57.03%,居民福利债务上限为27.09%,在不考虑生态环境和居民福利的影响时,债务可持续性较好。考虑环境污染、能源消耗和居民福利等问题时,债务空间被挤压,但考虑到长期的代际效应,舍弃一部分债务空间是有必要的。基于上述结论,调整中国的财政支出结构,优化债务投向,可以使政府债务的使用效率进一步提高,向更有利于绿色发展和居民福利增进的方向配置。Under the analytical framework of sustainable development of government debt,this paper starts from the two dimensions of green sustainable development and sustainable improvement of residents’welfare,constructs the fiscal response function from the two perspectives,and calculates the theoretical limit of government debt ratio ceiling,green debt ceiling and residents’welfare debt ceiling.The results show that the theoretical upper limits of government debt ratio,green debt and residents’welfare debt are 66.45%,57.03%,and 27.09%respectively.The debt sustainability is quite good without considering ecological environment and resident welfare.When environmental pollution,energy consumption and resident welfare are taken into consideration,the debt space is squeezed,but considering the long-term intergenerational effect,it is necessary to abandon part of the debt space.Based on the above conclusions,adjusting China’s fiscal expenditure structure and optimizing the direction of debt investment can further improve the application efficiency of government debt,and more allocations can be made to benefit green development and resident welfare improvement.

关 键 词：财政反应函数 债务上限 居民福利 绿色GDP 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]