西部陆海新通道背景下西部城市与东盟国家间贸易运输门户港选择  

Gateway port selection for trade transportation between cities in western China and ASEAN countries under background of New Western Land-sea Corridor

作　　者：杨俨斌 骆巧云 YANG Yanbin;LUO Qiaoyun(College of Transport&Communications,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学交通运输学院,上海201306

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2023年第3期19-25,共7页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(20&ZD070)。

摘　　要：在西部陆海新通道战略地位不断提升的背景下,分析西部城市与东盟国家间贸易运输的门户港选择很有必要。为此,提出考虑货物时间价值的运输路径广义成本的计算方法,采取蒙特卡洛法模拟随机事件样本,并基于Logit模型估算起讫点之间货主对各门户港的选择概率。以重庆到东盟国家各港口的多式联运为例进行计算,结果表明:不同货物、不同目的地均会影响货主的门户港选择;以上海港为门户港的运输路径对时间敏感度低的货物更有优势;随着货物对时间敏感度的提高,以深圳港和北部湾港为门户港的路径选择概率明显提升,且大多数情况下货主选择深圳港作为门户港的概率高于北部湾港的。以重庆至林查班港为例,通过降低北部湾港的物流价格进行情景分析,结果表明,北部湾港可适当降低高时间敏感度货物的运输价格来吸引货源,并可灵活调节其余货物运输中的相关价格,避免出现港口供需不均衡的情况。In the context of the increasing strategic status of New Western Land-sea Corridor,it is necessary to analyze the selection of gateway ports for trade transportation between cities in western China and ASEAN countries.Therefore,a method is proposed to calculate the generalized cost of transportation routes considering the time value of goods,the Monte Carlo method is adopted to simulate random event samples,and the selection probability of each gateway port between the start and end points is estimated based on the Logit model.Taking the multimodal transportation from Chongqing to the ports of ASEAN countries as an example,calculation results show that:different goods and different destinations can affect the gateway port selection of cargo owners;the transportation route with Shanghai Port as the gateway port has more advantages for the goods with low time sensitivity;with the increase of time sensitivity of goods,the selection probability of the route with Shenzhen Port and Beibu Gulf Port as gateway ports increases significantly,and in most cases,the selection probability of Shenzhen Port as the gateway port is higher than that of Beibu Gulf Port.Taking the route from Chongqing to Laem Chabang Port as an example,the scenario analysis is conducted by reducing the logistics cost in Beibu Gulf Port.The results show that,Beibu Gulf Port can appropriately reduce the transportation price of high time-sensitivity goods to attract the supply of goods,and flexibly adjust the relevant prices in the transportation of other goods to avoid the imbalance between supply and demand at the port.

关 键 词：西部陆海新通道 东盟贸易 货物时间价值 运输路径 门户港选择 市场份额 

分 类 号：F552.4[经济管理—产业经济]