“双碳”和新枢纽港背景下环渤海内支线鲁棒优化  

Robust optimization of branch lines in Bohai Rim under background of“dual carbon”and a new hub port

作　　者：李振福 李杰 段伟 刘坤 LI Zhenfu;LI Jie;DUAN Wei;LIU Kun(Transportation Management College,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China;School of Public Administration and Humanities,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116026,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输工程学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]大连海事大学公共管理与人文学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《上海海事大学学报》2023年第3期39-47,共9页Journal of Shanghai Maritime University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(20VHQ012)。

摘　　要：在俄罗斯计划打造符拉迪沃斯托克集装箱枢纽港和中国“双碳”战略实施的背景下,以包含碳排放成本的总运营成本最低为目标,考虑支线港集疏运需求和燃油价格双重不确定性,建立混合鲁棒随机优化模型,改进遗传算法对模型进行求解,优化环渤海内支线航运网络,并对参数进行灵敏度分析。结果表明:在确定性模型中考虑碳排放成本可以助力航运碳减排,响应“双碳”战略实施;鲁棒优化得到的最低成本和碳排放量均高于确定条件下的值,与“双碳”战略的推进有一定矛盾,但可以在一定程度上规避市场波动带来的风险。随着“双碳”战略进一步实施,碳税税率可能发生变动,决策者进行航线规划时应将其考虑在内,权衡风险和成本,调节遗憾值取得兼顾经济效益和环境效益的航线规划结果。In the context of Russia s intention to establish a container hub port in Vladivostok and the implementation of China s“dual carbon”strategy,aiming at the lowest total operating cost including the cost of carbon emission,considering the uncertainty of the demand for collection and distribution of branch ports and the uncertainty of fuel price,a hybrid robust stochastic optimization model is established,the genetic algorithm is improved to solve the model,the shipping network of branch lines in Bohai Rim is optimized,and the sensitivity analysis of parameters is conducted.The results show that:considering the cost of carbon emission in the deterministic model can help the shipping carbon emission reduction,and respond to the implementation of“dual carbon”strategy;the minimum cost and the carbon emission obtained by the robust optimization are higher than those of the solution under certain conditions,which is contradictory to the promotion of the“dual carbon”strategy,but it can avoid the risks caused by market fluctuation to a certain extent.With the further implementation of the“dual carbon”strategy,the carbon tax rate may change.Decision makers should take this into account when planning routes,weigh risks and costs,and adjust regret values to achieve route planning results that take into account both the economic and environmental benefits.

关 键 词：“双碳”战略 航运碳减排 新枢纽港 内支线规划 鲁棒优化 

分 类 号：U692.31[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]