成网条件下浙江省铁路客流预测研究  

Railway Passenger Flow Prediction in Zhejiang Province Under the Conditions of Railway Network

作　　者：李春光 龚帅宇 胡俊豪 袁宇晨 朱椰毅 方胜盛 徐行方[2,3] LI Chunguang;GONG Shuaiyu;HU Junhao;YUAN Yuchen;ZHU Yeyi;FANG Shengsheng;XU Xingfang(Zhejiang Jinwen Railway Development Co.,Ltd,Wenzhou 325000,China;College of Transportation Engineering,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;The Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering,Ministry of Education,Shanghai 201804,China;JSTI Group,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江金温铁道开发有限公司,温州325000 [2]同济大学交通运输工程学院,上海201804 [3]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [4]苏交科集团股份有限公司,南京210000

出　　处：《交通与运输》2023年第5期58-62,共5页Traffic & Transportation

基　　金：浙江省交通运输厅科技项目(2021057)。

摘　　要：客流是编制列车开行方案的基础,需要在准确把握旅客出行特征规律和变化趋势的基础上开展客流预测。首先,分析2025年浙江省铁路网概况,并结合近年来浙江省铁路客流对内对外交流数据,分析浙江省铁路客流出行特征及发展趋势。在此基础上,采用四阶段法预测2025年浙江省铁路网客流需求,采用随机用户均衡分配法将客流分配到浙江省铁路网中,分方向、分区段、分时期得出成网条件下浙江省省域铁路网络化客运需求。Passenger flow is the basis for formulating train operation plans,therefore,it is necessary to carry out passenger flow prediction based on accurately grasping the changing patterns and trends of passenger travel characteristics.The overview of the railway network in Zhejiang Province is analyzed,and combined with recent domestic and foreign exchange data of railway passenger flow in Zhejiang Province,the characteristics and development trends of railway passenger flow in Zhejiang Province are analyzed.On this basis,the four stage method is used to predict the passenger flow demand of the railway network in Zhejiang Province in 2025,and the random user equilibrium allocation method is used to allocate the passenger flow to the railway network in Zhejiang Province.The networked passenger demand of the railway network in Zhejiang Province is obtained by direction,section,and period.

关 键 词：铁路客运 客流特征 客流预测 随机用户均衡分配法 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]