中国与中东欧国家高技术产品贸易波动因素研究——基于CMS模型  

The Fluctuation Factors of High-tech Products Trade Between China and Central and Eastern European Countries:Based on the CMS Model

作　　者：闫国庆[1] 高聪[1] YAN Guoqing;GAO Cong(Zhejiang Wanli University,Ningbo Zhejiang 315100)

机构地区：[1]浙江万里学院,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《浙江万里学院学报》2023年第5期1-6,共6页Journal of Zhejiang Wanli University

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(20YJA790079);国家社科基金一般项目(21BJY221)。

摘　　要：为探索中国与中东欧国家高技术产品贸易的波动影响因素,深化中国与中东欧国家贸易合作,文章基于2012-2021年九大类高技术产品贸易数据,运用恒定市场模型(CMS)分析方法,对中国与中东欧国家高技术产品贸易波动影响因素进行分解和测算。结果显示:中东欧国家对高技术产品市场需求是促进中国对中东欧国家高技术产品出口的首要因素,而中国的高技术产品出口结构与中东欧国家进口结构互补性较低。中东欧国家高技术产品的竞争力促进了中国从中东欧国家进口,但随着时间迁移,中东欧国家高技术产品在中国市场竞争力在减弱。中国进口需求结构与中东欧国家出口结构互补性较低,但自2012年中国与中东欧国家合作机制建立以后,互补性有所提升。In order to explore the influencing factors of fluctuations in high-tech product trade between China and Central and Eastern European countries(CEECs),and deepen trade cooperation between China and CEECs,this article was based on nine categories of high-tech product trade data from 2012 to 2021,and used the constant market model analysis method to decompose and calculate the influencing factors of fluctuations in high-tech product trade between China and CEECs.The results showed that the demand for high-tech products in the market of CEECs was the primary factor in promoting China's high-tech product exports to CEECs,while China's high-tech product export structure and the import structure of CEECs had low complementarity.The competitiveness of high-tech products from CEECs had promoted China's imports from CEECs,but over time,the competitiveness of high-tech products from CEECs in the China's market was weakening.The complementarity between China's import demand structure and the export structure of CEECs was relatively low,but since the establishment of the China&CEECs cooperation mechanism in 2012,the complementarity has improved.

关 键 词：中东欧国家 高技术产品 贸易波动 CMS模型 

分 类 号：F746.2[经济管理—国际贸易] F746.9[经济管理—产业经济]