中国苜蓿草进口贸易格局及其影响因素  

The trade pattern of alfalfa importation into China and its influencing factors

作　　者：刁婵 王文信[1] DIAO Chan;WANG Wenxin(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《草业科学》2023年第9期2424-2434,共11页Pratacultural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71873130);国家创新方法工作专项项目(2020IM020905-1)。

摘　　要：随着进口量不断增加,中国苜蓿草(Medicagosativa)对外依存度不断加深,中国的奶牛养殖业越来越受到国际苜蓿草供给的影响。本研究在分析中国苜蓿草贸易格局的基础上,构建贸易引力模型,利用美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、西班牙、蒙古国、保加利亚、吉尔吉斯斯坦、阿根廷、苏丹9个苜蓿草主要进口来源国2008-2019年的数据,对影响中国苜蓿草进口的关键因素进行分析。结果显示,中国奶牛规模养殖比例、人民币汇率、同为WTO及APEC成员、与中国接壤等对苜蓿草贸易额起促进作用,而贸易伙伴国人均GDP、距离等对苜蓿草贸易额起阻碍作用,国内草原财政投入、国内商品苜蓿草产量等对苜蓿草贸易额影响并不显著。根据计算结果,本研究提出了推动进口来源多元化、优化产业扶持政策、建立优质苜蓿生产基地等对策。With the increasing importation of alfalfa(Medicago sativa),China’s reliance on foreign sources of alfalfa is increasing;the dairy industry in China is,therefore,being increasingly affected by the international supply of alfalfa.In this study we constructed a trade gravity model based on China’s alfalfa trade pattern to analyze the key factors affecting China’s alfalfa imports;we used data from nine major alfalfa export countries(2008-2019),including the United States,Australia,Canada,Spain,Mongolia,Bulgaria,Kyrgyzstan,Argentina,and Sudan.Overall,the results indicated that the proportion of dairy cows in large-scale farms in China,RMB exchange rate,membership status in WTO and APEC,and whether exporting countries border China have facilitating effects on the alfalfa grass trade;in contrast,GDP per capita and distance of trading partner countries hinder the alfalfa grass trade.However,domestic grassland financial input and domestic commercial alfalfa grass production have no significant effect on the alfalfa grass trade.Based on these results,we propose countermeasures,such as promoting diversification of import sources,optimizing industrial support policies,and establishing high-quality alfalfa production bases.

关 键 词：牧草产品 进口格局 引力模型 奶业 苜蓿干草 贸易 产业补贴 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.61