黄河源区水文要素变化及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Changes of Hydrological Elements and Driving Factors in the Source Area of the Yellow River

作　　者：张鸣 朱奎[1] 鲁帆[2] 戴雁宇 宋昕熠 于嵩彬 ZHANG Ming;ZHU Kui;LU Fan;DAI Yanyu;SONG Xinyi;YU Songbin(School of Resources and Earth Sciences,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou 221008,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院,江苏徐州221008 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038 [3]长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《人民黄河》2023年第10期30-37,共8页Yellow River

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0207)

摘　　要：水资源短缺是黄河流域目前面临的主要问题之一,黄河源区水文要素变化对整个流域的水资源开发利用有较大影响。利用1959—2019年黄河源区10个气象站、唐乃亥水文站监测数据及有关遥感数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验、累积距平、多元线性回归等方法分析水文要素的变化特征及驱动因素。结果表明:黄河源区1959—2019年年径流量呈现先减小后增大的变化趋势,年内径流量季节分配不均,1989年和2004年为2个突变年份。黄河源区1959—2019年年降水量、潜在蒸散发量、气温都呈现显著增大趋势,植被覆盖度呈现不显著增大趋势。气候变化是黄河源区1959—2019年径流量变化的主要影响因素,径流变化对降水的响应最敏感。1959—2004年下垫面参数对径流量变化的贡献率达到60.69%,是径流量减小的主要驱动因素,降水其次,潜在蒸散发的贡献率最小;1990—2019年降水对径流量变化的贡献率达到103.91%,是径流量增大的主要驱动因素,潜在蒸散发其次,下垫面变化的贡献率最小。The shortage of water resources is one of the main faced issues of the Yellow River Basin.The change of hydrological factors in the source area of the Yellow River has a great impact on the development and utilization of water resources in the whole Yellow River Basin.Based on the remote sensing data of 10 meteorological stations,Tangnaihai Hydrological Station and relevant remote sensing data in the source area of the Yellow River from 1959 to 2019,the variation characteristics and driving factors of hydrological elements were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall test,accumulated deviation from average method,concentration period and concentration degree,FAO penman-monteith,multiple linear regression and other methods.The results show that the runoff in the source area of the Yellow River shows a change trend of first decreasing and then increasing from 1959 to 2019,the seasonal distribution of annual runoff is uneven and 1989 and 2004 are two sudden change years.The average annual rainfall,potential evapotranspiration and temperature in the source area of the Yellow River show a significant increasing trend from 1959 to 2019 and vegetation coverage shows no significant increase trend.The attribution results of Budyko method with variable parameters show that climate change is the main influencing factor of runoff change in the source area of the Yellow River from 1959 to 2019,and runoff change is the most sensitive to rainfall.From 1959 to 2004,the contribution rate of underlying surface parameter n to runoff reaches to 60.69%,which is the main driving factor of runoff reduction,followed by rainfall,with the lowest potential evapotranspiration.From 1990 to 2019,the contribution rate of rainfall to runoff reaches to 103.91%,which is the main driving fac-tor of runoff increase,followed by potential evapotranspiration,with the lowest underlying surface.

关 键 词：水文要素变化 驱动因素 径流 Budyko 黄河源区 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] TV882.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]