Unfavorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific during the Last Interglacial based on PMIP4 simulations  

作　　者：Dubin Huan Qing Yan Ting Wei 

机构地区：[1]Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China [2]Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaste//Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing Unversity of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing China [3]State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing China [4]Undversty of Chinse Acadenry of Scdences,Beljing Chuna

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2023年第5期68-74,共7页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 41888101].

摘　　要：研究过去暖期西北太平洋热带气旋的变化有助于理解未来气候变暖情景下热带气旋的可能变化.本研究基于PMIP4多模式输出结果,分析了末次间冰期西北太平洋热带气旋大尺度生成因子的变化及相关机制.结果表明,末次间冰期西北太平洋风暴季潜在强度降低,湿熵亏损升高,绝对涡度减弱,中部垂直风切变增强,西南部减弱.进一步,基于生成潜势指数,指出末次间冰期西北太平洋生成潜势降低,这表明环境条件不利于热带气旋生成。Investigating the variation in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)in past warm periods helps to better understand Tc behaviors in a warming future.In this study,the authors analyze the changes in large-scale TC genesis factors and the associated mechanisms over the WNP during the Last Interglacial(LIG),based on multimodel outputs from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 4.The results show that potential intensity exhibits a general decrease over the WNP during the LIG in the storm season,dominated by a weakened thermodynamic disequilibrium.The moist entropy deficit shows an overall increase over the WNP,arising from the decreased mid-tropospheric moisture and weakened vertical temperature contrast.Vertical wind shear enhances over the central WNP but weakens over the southwestern WNP,which is induced by the changes in the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient and hence high-level zonal winds.The absolute vorticity shows a general decrease over the WNP,partially linked with the decreased SST over the western tropical Pacific.Based on a genesis potential index,the authors suggest a decrease in genesis potential over the WNP during the LIG,indicating unfavorable conditions for TC genesis.The results highlight the important role of Earth's orbit in regulating TC activity,which may shed light on TC behaviors in a warmer climate.

关 键 词：热带气旋 末次间冰期 PMIP4 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]