经济心理预期的“传染”机制及其应对研究  

“Contagion”Mechanism of Economic Psychological Expectations and Its Countermeasures

作　　者：崔俊富[1] 陈金伟 苗建军[1] CUI Junfu;CHEN Jinwei;MIAO Jianjun(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing Jiangsu 211106,China;School of Economics,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing Jiangsu 211815,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学经济与管理学院,江苏南京211106 [2]南京审计大学经济学院,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第5期155-162,共8页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics：Social Sciences edition Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(16BGL210);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2019M651830)。

摘　　要：新冠病毒感染疫情对中国经济的发展产生了一定的影响,公众心理变化是决定其影响广度和深度的重要因素之一。通过建立预期模型发现,公众心理预期对经济运行至关重要,心理预期变化将在很大程度上影响政策的选择。心理预期作为人的心理活动,具有“传染”机制。运用劝导免疫模型模拟心理预期的“传染”机制,结果显示,可以采取准确获知公众预期、降低预期“传染”速度、提高预期“免疫”速度、减少初始易受影响者等方式来合理引导公众心理预期。The COVID-19 epidemic has had a certain impact on China’s economic development,and changes in public psychology are one of the major factors that determine the breadth and depth of its impact.Through establishing an expectation model,the study finds that public psychological expectations are crucial to economic operations,and their changes will greatly affect policy choices.As the psychological activities of human beings,psychological expectations have an“contagion”mechanism.The paper adopts persuasive immune model to simulate the“contagion”mechanism of psychological expectations.The results show that public psychological expectations can be reasonably guided by investigating social expectations accurately,decreasing their rate of“contagion”,increasing their rate of“immunization”and reducing the number of initial vulnerable people.

关 键 词：惯性 心理预期 “传染” 劝导免疫模型 仿真 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]