地缘因素对我国粮食进口韧性的冲击与政策响应  

Geopolitical Factors on China's Grain Import Resilience Shocks and China's Policy Responses

作　　者：韩冬 钟钰[2] HAN Dong;ZHONG Yu(Henan Institute of Technolog;Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences)

机构地区：[1]河南工学院管理学院 [2]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所

出　　处：《国际贸易》2023年第9期52-61,共10页Intertrade

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“耕地—技术—政策融合视角的‘两藏’战略研究”(21ZDA056);国家社会科学基金青年项目“中美贸易摩擦对中国大豆进口稳定性的影响机理与政策保障研究”(22CJY018);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(ASTIP-IAED-2023-01)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：地缘因素对粮食进口有较大影响,探讨地缘因素对我国粮食进口韧性的冲击是准确应对国际市场变化、保障我国粮食进口安全的关键之举。文章基于粮食进口韧性和地缘因素的理论内涵,从进口量、进口价格、进口节奏和进口来源四个方面分析了地缘因素对我国粮食进口韧性的影响。研究表明:当前,地缘因素使得处于弱势地位的粮食进口国粮食进口抗压能力、恢复能力和转型升级能力明显下降,进口韧性受损;地缘因素对我国粮食进口韧性造成了冲击,我国粮食进口抗压能力、恢复能力和转型升级能力都有所不足。我国可通过降低粮食对外依赖度、提升进口来源多元化水平、提升国际市场供应链深度利用能力、增强国际市场风险预警能力提升粮食进口韧性。Geopolitical factors have a significant impact on grain imports.Exploring the impact of geographical factors on the resilience of China's grain imports is a key measure to adeptly navigate fluctuations in the global mar-ket and safeguard China's grain import security.Leveraging the foundational tenets of grain import resilience and geospatial considerations,this paper rigorously scrutinizes the impact of geographical variables on China's grain im-port resilience across four dimensions:import volume,import price,import rhythm,and import sources.The find-ings conclusively illustrate that geographical factors markedly diminish the capacity of susceptible food-importing nations to withstand pressure,recover promptly,and undertake transformative and progressive shifts in grain im-ports,thereby impairing import resilience.The analysis further demonstrates that China's grain imports are not im-pervious to geopolitical influences,thus underscoring a deficiency in its ability to endure stressors,recuperate effec-tively,and undergo the requisite transformations and enhancements.To fortify the resilience of its food imports,China can proactively mitigate the dependence on foreign grain,enhance the diversification of sourcing channels,optimize the comprehensive utilization of the international supply chain,and bolster the efficacy of early warning mechanisms against potential global market risks.

关 键 词：地缘因素 粮食 进口韧性 

分 类 号：F752.61[经济管理—国际贸易] F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]