后真相时代基于敌意媒体效应的观点演化建模与仿真  

Modeling and Simulation of Opinion Evolution Based on Hostile Media Effect in the Post-truth Era

作　　者：张轩宇 陈曦[1] 肖人彬[1] ZHANG Xuanyu;CHEN Xi;XIAO Renbin(School of Artificial Intelligence and Automation,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学人工智能与自动化学院,武汉430074

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2023年第3期44-51,59,共9页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71974063)。

摘　　要：后真相时代群体立场的对立加剧和媒体公信力的下降导致敌意媒体效应凸显。为揭示敌意媒体效应对舆论形成的影响,探究舆论群体和大众媒体之间的互动机制,提出一种考虑媒体敌意和意见领袖的观点演化模型,并进行仿真实验。仿真结果与分析表明,媒体的真实观点、群体与媒体的交流概率、极端意见领袖的比例等因素都会调节群体的极化程度。结果从定量角度揭示了敌意媒体效应的存在会对舆论形成,尤其是群体极化的加剧造成重要影响。In the post-truth era,the intensified antagonism between different groups and the decline of media credibility could lead to the prominent effect of hostile media effect.To reveal the influence of hostile media effect on the public opinion formation,we explore the interaction mechanism between opinion groups and mass media and propose an opinion dynamics model that considers media hostility and opinion leaders.We finally conduct simulation experiments on the model.The simulation results and analysis show that the real opinion of media,the probability of communication between groups and media,and the proportion of extreme opinion leaders can mediate the degree of group polarization.The results reveal quantitatively that the existence of hostile media effect has an important influence on the formation of public opinion,especially on the intensification of group polarization.

关 键 词：后真相 观点演化 敌意媒体效应 意见领袖 大众媒体 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]