扩大进口提升了城市经济韧性吗  

Does Expanding Imports Improve the Urban Economic Resilience

作　　者：王世平 赵春燕 WANG Shiping;ZHAO Chunyan

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学人文和社会科学高等研究院

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2023年第8期57-72,共16页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：广东省普通高校特色创新类项目(2022WTSCX181)。

摘　　要：文章基于2004~2018年城市层面数据,利用2012年国务院颁布的《关于加强进口促进对外贸易平衡发展的指导意见》作为扩大进口的自然实验,采用倍差法探讨扩大进口政策实施对中国城市经济韧性的影响。文章研究发现:扩大进口显著提高了城市经济韧性,在一系列稳健性检验后这一结论依然稳健。进一步的机制检验发现,扩大进口通过产业升级效应提高了城市经济韧性。异质性分析表明,扩大进口对大城市和中等城市经济韧性的影响显著为正,对小城市经济韧性的影响不显著;扩大进口对东部城市经济韧性的提升作用最大,对西部城市经济韧性的提升作用次之,对中部城市经济韧性的提升作用最小。文章的研究表明,通过扩大进口提升城市经济韧性是应对外部冲击、缓解经济下行压力的有效举措。Based on the city-level data from 2004 to 2018,this paper uses the Guiding Opinions on Strengthening Import and Promoting the Balanced Development of Foreign Trade issued by the State Council in 2012 as a natural experiment of expanding imports,and explores the impact of implementing the policy of expanding imports on China's urban economic resilience with DID method.The research shows that expanding imports significantly enhances the urban economic resilience and this conclusion is robust after a series of tests.Further mechanism test reveals that expanding imports improves the urban economic resilience through industrial upgrading effect.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the impact of expanding imports on the economic resilience of large and medium-sized cities is significantly positive,while its impact on the economic resilience of small cities is not significant;the improvement effect of expanding imports on the economic resilience of the eastern cities is the greatest,followed by that on the economic resilience of the western cities,and the improvement effect of expanding imports on the economic resilience of the central cities is the smallest.This paper shows that improving the urban economic resilience by expanding imports is an effective measure to deal with external shocks and alleviate the economic downward pressure.

关 键 词：扩大进口 城市经济韧性 产业升级 就业扩张 自然实验法 

分 类 号：F746.11[经济管理—国际贸易] F293.1[经济管理—产业经济]