“绿箱”还是“黄箱”?——农业收入保险试点政策WTO合规性、风险测算与通报策略探讨  

“Green Box”or“Amber Box”?——Discussion on WTO Compliance,Risk Measurement,and Notification Strategies for Agricultural Income Insurance Pilot Policies

作　　者：张姝 张靳雪 吕开宇[1] ZHANG Shu;ZHANG Jinxue;LYU Kaiyu

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]河北农业大学经济管理学院,保定071001

出　　处：《世界农业》2023年第10期5-15,共11页World Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“新形势下我国农业劳动力调整成本与国内农业支持政策转型研究”(72003184);国家自科科学基金面上项目“玉米临储政策取消背景下粮食种植户群体适应性调整及演化研究”(71973138);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目(1610052023021);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(10-IAED-03-2023)。

摘　　要：在当前国际政治、经济形势背景下,通过实施政策性农业保险突破国内农业支持政策转型瓶颈、化解WTO规则下的“破箱”困局,明确中国农业收入保险补贴的WTO合规性至关重要。本文通过对比WTO《农业协定》与中国三大粮食作物种植收入保险试点政策发现,由于现行试点政策中的起付线、免赔额、赔付金额等方面均存在争议点,当前农业收入保险补贴较大概率被归为特定产品“黄箱”。进一步对特定产品综合支持总量(AMS)和微量许可剩余空间(MRS)的测算结果显示,若将农业保险补贴归于“黄箱”措施,那么特定产品小麦、稻谷将面临“破箱”风险。在针对“破箱”风险的应对与化解方面,本文通过对保障水平、目标收入、农业生产者净得、“转箱”等关键指标的具体拆解和测算,提出通过策略性通报降低“破箱”风险的具体方案,同时提出实现农业收入保险的市场化转型、提升保险机构的专业能力、深度参与和影响WTO改革与贸易规则制定等中长期政策建议。In the current international political and economic situation,it is crucial to clarify whether China’s agricultural income insurance subsidies comply with WTO rules to break through the bottleneck of domestic agricultural support policy transformation and resolve the“box-breaking”dilemma under WTO rules.This article compares the WTO Agricultural Agreement with China’s three major pilot policies for crop planting income insurance,and finds that the current agricultural income insurance subsidies are more likely to be classified as Product-Specific“Amber Box”.The reason for this is that there are controversial points in the current pilot policies,such as the minimum payment line,deductible amount,and compensation amount.Based on the calculation results of the Aggregate Measure of Support(AMS)and the Marginal Remaining Space(MRS)for specific products,it becomes evident that if agricultural insurance subsidies are categorized as“Amber Box”measures,specific products such as wheat and rice will be exposed to the risk of“box-breaking”.In addressing and mitigating this“box-breaking”risk,this article presents specific strategies aimed at reducing the risk through strategic reporting,involving a detailed breakdown and assessment of critical metrics such as coverage level,target income,net benefit to agricultural producers and“box-shifting”.Furthermore,the article puts forth long-term policy recommendations,which encompass transforming agricultural income insurance into a market-driven system,bolstering the professional capacities of insurance institutions,and actively engaging in and influencing WTO reforms and the formulation of trade rules.

关 键 词：农业收入保险 财政补贴 WTO合规性 “黄箱” 国内支持政策改革 

分 类 号：F842.66[经济管理—保险] F323