面向东北振兴的东北三省数据跨境流动需求预测  

Demand forecast of cross-border data flow facing the revitalization of northeast China

作　　者：赵东方[1] 车亮亮[2] 时秀梅[3] ZHAO Dongfang;CHE Liangliang;SHI Xiumei(School of Foreign Languages,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;School of Geography,Liaoning Normal University,Dalian 116029,China;School of Business,Dalian University of Foreign Languages,Dalian 116044,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学外国语学院,辽宁大连116029 [2]辽宁师范大学地理科学学院,辽宁大连116029 [3]大连外国语大学商学院,辽宁大连116044

出　　处：《辽宁师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期401-408,共8页Journal of Liaoning Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金资助项目(L21BGL014)。

摘　　要：海底光缆作为重要的国际通信基础设施,是数据跨境流动最重要的传输通道,但东北地区还未布局国际海底光缆项目.面对区域日益增长的互联网带宽和高速连接需求,为推动东北地区建设国际海底光缆网络,主要采用回归分析与马尔科夫预测相结合的方法,对东北三省的数据跨境流量需求进行定量预测,为有关部门布局规划海底光缆建设乃至设立国际通信出入口局提供参考依据.预测结果显示,最快在2025年就东北三省的互联网带宽将无法满足区域内企业的使用需求.大连作为东北振兴的龙头,具有建设海底光缆及海缆登陆站的先天优势,选址大连作为国际海底光缆登陆点乃至设立区域国际通信出入口局都将具有重大的政治和经济意义.As an important international communication infrastructure,submarine cable is the most important transmission pipeline for cross-border data flow.But the northeast China has not yet laid out an international submarine cable project.In the face of the growing demand for internet bandwidth and high-speed connection in the region,in order to promote the construction of international submarine optical cable network in northeast China,this paper mainly adopts the method of regression analysis and Markov prediction to quantitatively forecast the cross-border data traffic demand of Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning,the three provinces in northeast China,so as to provide reference for the relevant departments to layout and plan the construction of submarine optical cable and even the establishment of international communication way in and way-out bureau.The forecast results show that as early as 2025,the bandwidth in northeast China would not meet the needs of the regional enterprises to use the internet.As the leader of the revitalization of northeast China,Dalian has the innate advantages of constructing submarine cable and submarine cable landing station.The selection of Dalian as the landing point of international submarine cable and even the establishment of regional international communication way in and way-out Bureau would be significant in politics and economy.

关 键 词：流量 带宽 组合预测 情景分析 东北振兴 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学] F127