2008—2022年荆州市丙型病毒性肝炎发病的年龄、时期、队列趋势分析  

Trends in age-,period-and cohort-specific incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 to 2022

作　　者：刘锐[1] 蔺茂文 江鸿 李舒超[1] 张凡 孙春[1] LIU Rui;LIN Maowen;JIANG Hong;LI Shuchao;ZHANG Fan;SUN Chun(Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention,Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou,Hubei 434000,China)

机构地区：[1]荆州市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制所,湖北荆州434000

出　　处：《预防医学》2023年第10期871-876,共6页CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL

摘　　要：目的分析2008—2022年湖北省荆州市丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)发病趋势及年龄、时期、队列对丙肝发病率的影响,为制定丙肝防制策略提供依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2008—2022年荆州市丙肝发病资料和人口学资料,计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)和年度变化百分比(APC)分析丙肝发病趋势;采用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期和出生队列对丙肝发病率的影响。结果2008—2022年荆州市丙肝年均发病率为20.26/10万,其中男性发病率为20.04/10万,女性发病率为20.47/10万。丙肝发病率呈先上升后下降趋势(AAPC=5.375%,P<0.05),其中2008—2018年呈上升趋势(APC=13.370%,P<0.05),2018—2022年呈下降趋势(APC=-12.231%,P<0.05)。丙肝发病率随年龄增长呈上升趋势,以45~49岁组为对照,80~84岁组发病风险最高(RR=11.420,95%CI:7.631~17.090)。丙肝发病率随时期推移呈先上升后下降趋势,以2008—2012年为对照,2013—2017年发病风险上升(RR=1.393,95%CI:1.272~1.525),2018—2022年下降(RR=1.237,95%CI:1.072~1.428)。丙肝发病率随出生年份推移呈先上升后下降趋势,以1960—1964年出生队列为对照,高危出生队列为1965—1984年(RR均>1.300)。男性和女性丙肝发病趋势、年龄和时期趋势,以及男性队列趋势与全人群的基本一致;女性高危出生队列除1965—1984年(RR均>1.300)外,还有2000—2014年(RR均>1.250)。结论2008—2022年荆州市丙肝发病率呈先上升后下降趋势,丙肝发病率随年龄增长呈上升趋势,中老年人群发病风险较高。Objective To investigate the trend in incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City,Hubei Province from 2008 to 2022,and to examine the age-period-cohort effect,so as to provide the basis for the formulation of hepatitis C pre⁃vention strategies.Methods Demographic data and incidence data of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 to 2022 were collected through the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and the trend in incidence of hepatitis C was analyzed using average annual percent change(AAPC)and annual percent change(APC).The effects of age,period and cohort on the incidence of hepatitis C were examined with an age-period-cohort model.Results The average annual incidence of hepatitis C in Jingzhou City from 2008 and 2022 was 20.26/105,with a male incidence of 20.04/105 and a female incidence of 20.47/105.The incidence of hepatitis C initially rose and then fell(AAPC=5.375%,P<0.05),with a rising trend from 2008 to 2018(APC=13.370%,P<0.05)and a decreasing trend from 2018 to 2022(APC=−12.231%,P<0.05).The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise with age,and the 80-84 age group had the highest risk(RR=11.420,95%CI:7.631-17.090)in relative to the 45-49 age group.The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a tendency towards a rise followed by a decline with time,and an increased risk of hepatitis C was seen from 2013 to 2017(RR=1.393,95%CI:1.272-1.525)and a decreased risk was seen from 2018 to 2022(RR=1.237,95%CI:1.072-1.428)in relative to the period from 2008 to 2012.The incidence of hepatitis C appeared a ten⁃dency towards a rise followed by a decline with the cohort,and a higher risk was found in the 1965-1984 cohort(all RR>1.300)in relative to the 1960-1964 cohort.The incidence of hepatitis C,the age and period effects in men and women,and the cohort effects in men were consistent with the whole population.In addition to the 1965-1984 cohort,a higher risk was found in the 2000-2014 cohort in women(all RR>1.250).Conclusions From 2008 to 2022,the inci⁃dence of hepatitis C in

关 键 词：丙型病毒性肝炎 发病率 年龄-时期-队列模型 

分 类 号：R512.63[医药卫生—内科学]