东江下游流域突发性重金属复合污染生态风险评价  

Ecological risk assessment for heavy metals mixing pollution accidents at the Dongjiang downstream watershed

作　　者：刘静 刘仁志[2] 张瀚文 邹长新 张志娇 LIU Jing;LIU Renzhi;ZHANG Hanwen;ZOU Changxin;ZHANG Zhijiao(Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Nanjing 210042,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Institute of Strategic Planning,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Beijing 100012,China;Institute of Environmental Risk&Damages Assessment,Guangdong Provincial Academy of Environmental Science,Guangzhou 510045,China)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部南京环境科学研究所,南京210042 [2]北京师范大学环境学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875 [3]生态环境部环境规划院战略规划所,北京100012 [4]广东省环境科学研究院,环境风险与损害鉴定评估研究所,广州510045

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第18期7553-7565,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52170186);江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20220205)。

摘　　要：流域突发性重金属污染事件发生不确定性较高,难以预测和防控,严重威胁流域生态安全、人群健康乃至社会稳定。本研究以东江下游流域为研究区开展生态风险评价,基于"多风险源(危险性)-多胁迫因子(联合暴露)-多风险受体(脆弱性)-生态风险"的风险传递框架,运用贝叶斯网络,计算东江下游流域突发性Cr6+-Hg2+复合污染生态风险,概率化表征风险不确定性,进而提出流域风险防控与管理措施。结果表明:(1)东江下游深莞惠地区67家涉重金属风险源均会对其子流域造成生态风险,惠州市的生态风险明显高于深圳市和东莞市;(2)东江下游西枝江子流域的生态风险最为显著,其次是东江下游干流子流域和东江下游河网区子流域;(3)基于敏感性分析,"河流水体脆弱性"是造成东江下游流域生态风险的主导因子。研究结果可为东江下游流域生态风险防控与管理提供理论支持。Heavy metal pollution accidents have the characteristics of high uncertainty,which are difficult to predict and control,thus posing great threats to the ecological security,human health and even social stability.In this study,based on the Bayesian Network,ecological risk was probabilistically evaluated with uncertainty for the accidental Cr6+-Hg2+mixing pollution at the Dongjiang River downstream watershed,following the risk route"multiple risk sources hazardousness-risk stressors joint exposure-multiple risk receptors vulnerability-ecological risk",and the relevant risk control and management measures were proposed.The results showed that(1)all electroplating risk sources(67 in total)would cause ecological risk to Dongjiang downstream watershed.The ecological risk level in Huizhou City was the highest compared to that in Shenzhen City and Dongguan City.(2)The ecological risk level was the highest in the tributary(Xizhijiang River),which was superior than that in the mainstream and the river network of the Dongjiang River.(3)Based on the sensitivity analysis,risk node"water body vulnerability"was the critical factor for the ecological risk.The quantitative risk assessment can provide a scientific basis for the ecological risk transfer methodologies,as well as technical support for ecological risk prevention and management at the watershed scale.

关 键 词：东江下游 突发性重金属复合污染 贝叶斯网络 生态风险 

分 类 号：X52[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X826