要素价格、产业转型与农民工回流  

Factor Prices,Industrial Transformation and Return of Migrant Workers

作　　者：张欢[1] 吴方卫[2,3] Zhang Huan;Wu Fangwei(Institute of Food and Strategic Reserves,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Jiangsu Nanjing 210023,China;Institute for Urban-Rural Development,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China;Institute of Finance and Economics,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学粮食和物资学院,江苏南京210023 [2]上海财经大学城乡发展研究院,上海200433 [3]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《上海财经大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第4期108-122,共15页Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“劳动禀赋时空异质性变化下我国种植业结构调整问题研究”(71873082);上海财经大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目“产业转型、要素相对价格与农民工流动”(QCDC-2020-07);清华大学中国农村研究院博士论文奖学金项目(202213)。

摘　　要：近年来,中国农民工流动由单向流出转向流出和回流并存现象,即不仅仅是“孔雀东南飞”,还有“凤凰还巢”。文章以制造业产业转型为背景,基于中国流动人口动态监测调查数据、中国工业企业数据以及宏观统计年鉴数据,采用OLS模型和工具变量法,分析了要素价格对农民工回流的影响。研究发现,首先,要素价格变化改变了农民工的流动方向,即由向东部地区流动转变为逐渐向中西部地区流动,流动人口规模变小,跨地区转移劳动力减少,就地转移劳动力增加,回流趋势明显。其次,要素价格主要通过劳动密集型产业转型对农民工回流产生影响。东部地区高工资对农民工的引力作用减弱,中西部地区就业机会增加和幸福感提升加快了农民工回流,劳动密集型产业转型对农民工回流发挥了导向作用。此外,要素价格对老一代农民工回流的影响大于新生代农民工。文章为理解农民工回流的动因提供了新的视角和依据。In the context of China’s transformation from a“big manufacturing country”to a“manufacturing powerhouse”,the transformation of China’s manufacturing industry is accelerating.Factor prices not only affect the production and operation decisions of enterprises,but also play an important guiding role in selecting the flow direction of migrant workers.Therefore,this paper takes the transformation of manufacturing industry as the background,and the rising factor prices as the entry point,and based on the dynamic monitoring survey data of migration in China,the data of Chinese industrial enterprises,and the data of the macro statistical yearbook,analyzes the impact of changes in the distribution of employment opportunities between regions on the return of migrant workers from two aspects.Since the transformation of manufacturing industry may have a non-linear impact on the return of migrant workers,this paper adds a quadratic term of industrial transformation to the model.It selects the average labor cost of the industry as an instrumental variable to alleviate the potential endogenous problem,and uses the OLS estimation method and instrumental variable method to identify the mechanism of the transformation of manufacturing industry on the return of migrant workers more accurately.The results show that:First,the change in factor prices has changed the flow direction of migrant workers.That is,the shift from moving towards eastern regions to gradually moving towards central and western regions has resulted in a smaller scale of floating population,a decrease in cross-regional transfer of labor,an increase in local transfer of labor,and a clear trend of return.Second,factor prices affect the return of migrant workers mainly through the transformation of labor-intensive industry.The gravitational effect of high wages on migrant workers in eastern regions is weakened,while the increase of employment opportunities and the improvement of happiness in central and western regions accelerate the return of migrant wor

关 键 词：要素价格 农民工回流 产业转型 劳动密集型产业 

分 类 号：F241.4[经济管理—劳动经济]