基于连续因子和非连续因子的山区崩滑流易发性研究  

Susceptibility of geological hazards in mountain areas based on continuous and discontinuous factors

作　　者：舒和平 刘蓉 王刚 刘兴荣[4] SHU He-ping;LIU Rong;WANG Gang;LIU Xing-rong(Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety,College of Civil Engineering and Mechanics,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Lanzhou Meteorological Bureau,Lanzhou 730020,China;Geological Hazards Prevention Institute,Gansu Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学土木工程与力学学院,西部生态安全省部共建协同创新中心,兰州730000 [2]甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院,兰州730070 [3]兰州市气象局,兰州730020 [4]甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期437-446,454,共11页Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)

基　　金：兰州大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(lzujbky-2021-kb12,lzujbky-2022-pd01);防灾减灾湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学)项目(2021KJZ05);甘肃省2021年度重点人才项目(2021RCXM066);甘肃省科学院应用研究与开发项目(2021JK-07)。

摘　　要：以祁连山东段北坡为研究区,基于区内390个崩滑流点,选择坡度、坡向、水流强度指数、道路、土地利用、断层等评价因子,结合因子剔除方法,应用改进频率比(连续因子计算)和证据权法(非连续因子计算)进行易发性评价,并用密度法和ROC曲线验证评价结果精度.结果表明,评价因子的筛选对易发性结果极为重要;不同因子组合下两种方法的易发性结果曲线下面积值均高于0.80;极低-低易发等级面积约占80%,高-极高易发等级面积约占6.5%,高-极高易发等级中崩滑流灾害点数量均超过64%,亟需加强区内地质灾害潜在风险转移研究.The north slope of the Qilian Mountains'east segment was selected as the study object,390 geological hazards points were used as sample data,and the slope,aspect,road,stream power index,land use and fault chosen as the evaluation factors.The modified frequency ratio(continuous factors)and weight evidence methods(discontinuous factors)were conducted to calculate the susceptibility and by combining with the method of exclude factors,density method and receiver operator characteristic curve,to verify the accuracy of the evaluation results,which showed that the selection of evaluation factors was very important for susceptibility,and the values of area under curve were higher than 0.80 for the two methods under different factor combinations.The areas of very low and low susceptibility accounted for about 80%of the total,and the very high and high susceptibility for about 6.5%;the number of geological hazard points exceeded 64%in the high and very high susceptibility areas.It is urgent to strengthen the research into the potential risk transfer of geological disasters.

关 键 词：地质灾害 易发性 证据权 改进频率比 祁连山东段北坡 

分 类 号：P642.23[天文地球—工程地质学]