高等教育扩张与个人收入阶层流动——基于高校扩招的政策评估  

Higher Education Expansion and Individual Income Class Mobility—Policy Evaluation Based on College Enrollment Expansion

作　　者：鄢杰 涂训华 郑静 YAN Jie;TU Xunhua;ZHENG Jing(School of Public Finance and Taxation,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学财政与税务学院,四川成都611130 [2]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2023年第5期115-127,共13页Modern Economic Science

摘　　要：利用2010—2020年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据,在测算并分析个体收入阶层流动现状的基础上,将1999年“高校扩招”政策作为准自然实验,采用队列双重差分模型检验高等教育扩张对个人收入流动的影响。实证结果表明:高等教育扩张增强了个人收入的阶层流动性,促进了个人收入阶层跃迁。从城乡两个方面看,高等教育扩张对农村个体收入的绝对流动和相对流动均有显著促进作用,但仅对城市个体收入的绝对流动有较显著的正向作用,对其收入的相对流动则没有显著影响。机制检验结果表明:高等教育扩张提高了接受高等教育人群进入人力资本密集型行业的机会,同时会通过影响这部分人群的婚姻选择、促进人口跨地区流动等路径影响个人收入的阶层流动性。在高等教育持续扩张的背景下,应进一步拓展职业教育的发展空间,打破教育壁垒,充分利用互联网资源,缩小区域间教育资源差异,为低收入家庭提供倾斜性的政策和平台支持。Higher education plays a vital role in upward mobility for the general class,but concerns have arisen regarding“diploma devaluation”and“college student ants”due to the rapid growth of college enrollment.Understanding whether and how higher education facilitates income class mobility for individuals has become increasingly important.While existing literature examines higher education’s impact on social class mobility and intergenerational income mobility,limited studies explore the relationship between higher education and intra-generational income class mobility,particularly considering individual-level data and diverse institutional factors such as marriage choice and population mobility.This paper utilizes data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)spanning from 2010 to 2020 to analyze individual income class mobility.We employ a cohort difference-in-difference model,leveraging the‘College Enrollment Expansion’policy as a quasi-natural experiment to assess the impact of higher education on individual income mobility.Empirical results reveal that higher education expansion enhances individual income class mobility and promotes income stratum spanning.A comparison between rural and urban areas demonstrates that higher education expansion significantly affects both absolute and relative mobility of rural individuals’incomes,whereas only absolute mobility of urban individuals’incomes is affected significantly.Mechanism tests indicate that the expansion of higher education increases the likelihood of educated individuals entering human capital-intensive industries,and it influences individual income class mobility through marriage choices and cross-regional mobility.Compared to the previous literature,there are three main possible marginal contributions:First,we analyze the impact of higher education expansion on intra-generational income class mobility at the individual level and explore its pathways,including industry choice,marriage mechanisms,and population migration.Second,it is a comprehen

关 键 词：个人收入 收入流动 阶层固化 高等教育 高校扩招 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济] G649.20[文化科学—高等教育学]