未来气候情景下中国3种百里香地理分布预测  

Prediction of Geographical Distribution of Three Thyme Species in China under Future Climate Scenarios

作　　者：米文韬 任卫波 陈喆 张敏 刘亚玲 MI Wentao;REN Weibo;CHEN Zhe;ZHANG Ming;LIU Yaling(School of Ecology and Environment,Inner Mongolia University,Hohhot 010021,China;Inner Mongolia M-Grass Ecology and Environment(Group)Co.Ltd.,Hohhot 010030,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古大学生态与环境学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010021 [2]蒙草生态环境(集团)股份有限公司,内蒙古呼和浩特010030

出　　处：《中国草地学报》2023年第9期47-56,共10页Chinese Journal of Grassland

基　　金：内蒙古自治区“科技兴蒙”重点专项课题“百里香种质资源收集与评价”(2020-科技兴蒙-草种业技术创新中心-1);内蒙古自治区科技计划重点项目“优质牧草新种质创制与新品种选育”(2020GG0063);内蒙古自治区科技计划重大专项“黄河流域典型退化区生态修复关键技术研究”(2021ZD00804)。

摘　　要：百里香属植物在生态修复、荒漠化治理、水土保持等方面具有重要应用价值。近年来,野生百里香属资源急剧减少,因此摸清不同种百里香的分布范围以及未来气候变化背景下的生境变化,对于百里香属种质资源保护十分重要。针对这一问题,本文采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt),结合数字标本馆等相关信息,探究当前气候情景下百里香、亚洲百里香、展毛地椒的分布范围,预测在低CO_(2)排放和高CO_(2)排放2种未来气候情景下不同种不同类型生境范围的变化。结果表明:(1)限制百里香和展毛地椒在中国分布的主要气候变量是温度季节性变化标准差、最暖月最高温度、最干季度平均温度和年降水量;限制亚洲百里香分布的主要气候变量是温度季节性变化标准差、最暖月最高温度、最湿季度平均温度、最干季度平均温度。(2)不同种的适宜气候范围不同。展毛地椒适宜气候范围最广,温度季节性变化标准差860~1600、最暖月最高温度22~31℃、最干季平均温度-13~7℃,年降水量180~890 mm;百里香适宜气候范围最窄,温度季节性变化标准差790~1700,最暖月最高温度23~30℃,最干季平均温度-13~3℃,年降水量340~740 mm。(3)3种百里香中,百里香的潜在分布面积最大,占我国国土面积的33%;亚洲百里香的潜在分布面积最小,占我国国土面积的25%。(4)在2种未来气候情景不同时间段下,百里香和展毛地椒在我国的适宜生境面积均增加,亚洲百里香的适宜生境面积减少。Thyme genus plants have significant application in ecological restoration,desertification control,soil and water conservation.In recent years,Thymus resources have drastically declined.Therefore,understanding the distribution ranges of different Thymus species and the habitat changes under future climate scenarios is crucial for the conservation of Thymus germplasm resources.In order to solve this problem,this study employed the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model,in conjunction with digital specimen data and related information,to investigate the distribution ranges of Thymus mongolicus Ronn.,Thymus asiaticus Serg.and Thymus quinquecostatus Celak.var.przewalskii(Kom.)Ronn.Under current climate conditions.It also predicted the changes in habitat ranges for these species in two future climate scenarios.The results showed that:(1)The primary climatic variables influencing the distribution of Thymus mongolicus Ronn.and Thymus quinquecostatus Celak.var.przewalskii(Kom.)Ronn in China include temperature seasonality standard deviation,highest temperature in warmest month,average temperature in the driest quarter,and annual precipitation.For Thymus asiaticus Serg.,the main climatic variables were temperature seasonality standard deviation,highest temperature in the warmest month,average temperature in the wettest quarter,and average temperature in the driest quarter.(2)Different species exhibit varying suitable climate ranges.Thymus przewalskii had the broadest suitable climate range,with temperature seasonality standard deviations ranging 860 to 1600,highest temperatures in the warmest month ranging from 22 to 31℃,average temperatures in the driest quarter ranging from−13 to 7℃,and annual precipitation ranging from 180 to 890 mm.Thy⁃mus mongolicus had the narrowest suitable climate range,with temperature seasonality standard deviations ranging from 790 to 1700,highest temperatures in the warmest month ranging from 23 to 30℃,average temperature in the driest quarter ranging from−13 to 3℃,and annual precipitation

关 键 词：最大熵模型 百里香 气候变化 生境变化 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]