基于变权物元可拓模型的苏宁易购债务融资风险敏感性分析  

Sensitivity Analysis Based on Variable-weight matter-element Extension Model of Suning Tesco's Debt Financing Risk

作　　者：戴士博 杨爱军(指导) DAI Shi-bo(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学经济管理学院,南京210037 [2]不详

出　　处：《中国林业经济》2023年第4期124-130,共7页China Forestry Economics

基　　金：2023年南京林业大学大学生实践创新训练计划项目(202310298028Z)。

摘　　要：类金融模式下企业应当对债务融资风险进行合理分析和有效评价。利用变权物元可拓模型对苏宁易购债务融资风险进行评价;并通过敏感性分析方法,深入探讨评价指标值变动对指标权重和评价结果的影响。实例分析结果表明:①苏宁易购债务融资风险等级为高风险偏向于一般风险。②随指标值的增加,每个指标权重的变化趋势存在较大差异。③随着各指标值的共同变大(变小),等级变量特征值相应地逐渐变大(变小)。④随各指标值变化,等级变量特征值的变化趋势存在一定差异。特别当资产现金回收率、投资决策能力、流动资产周转率和通过膨胀率四个指标值变化时,等级偏向会发生改变。⑤资产现金回收率、投资决策能力、流动资产周转率和通过膨胀率四个指标是影响苏宁易购债务融资风险评价结果的敏感性指标。研究结论有助于采取针对性措施对苏宁易购债务融资风险进行管控。Under the quasi-financial model,enterprises should conduct reasonable analysis and effective evaluation of debt financing risks.This paper used the variable weight element extensibility model to evaluate the debt financing risk of Suning.com.Through the sensitivity analysis method,the influence of the change of evaluation index value on the weight of index and evaluation results was deeply explored.The case analysis results showed that:①Suning.com debt financing risk level was high risk,biased towards general risk.②With the increase of index value,the change trend of the weight of each indicator was quite different.③As the common value of each indicator became larger(smaller),the characteristic value of the hierarchical variable gradually became larger(smaller).④With the change of the value of each index,there was a certain difference in the change trend of the characteristic value of the grade variable.In particular,when the values of the four indicators of asset cash recovery,investment decision-making ability,liquidity rate and passing expansion rate changed,the grade bias would change.⑤The four indicators of asset cash recovery rate,investment decision-making ability,current asset turnover rate and passing inflation rate were the sensitivity indicators that affected the risk evaluation results of Suning.com debt financing.The research conclusions of this paper were helpful to take targeted measures to control the debt financing risk of Suning.com.

关 键 词：变权理论 贴近度函数 物元可拓模型 债务融资风险 敏感性指标 

分 类 号：F324[经济管理—产业经济]