换道交通事故伤害严重程度异质性分析  

Heterogeneity Analysis of Injury Severity in Lane Change Traffic Accidents

作　　者：尤逸文 任斯奇 YOU Yi-wen;REN Si-qi(College of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏南京210037

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2023年第9期169-172,共4页Logistics Engineering and Management

摘　　要：为研究对换道事故伤害严重程度有影响的因素,文中从驾驶员、道路、车辆以及道路环境等各方面特征选出18个相关影响因素,同时构建均值和方差具有异质性的随机参数Logit模型;另一方面,利用平均弹性系数结果对影响换道事故严重程度的因素进行定量描述。结果表明:车辆禁用功能轻微损坏为随机变量,驾驶员性别为男性与驾驶员分心对其均值有异质性影响,气囊未打开对其方差有异质性影响。视力有障碍、车辆禁用功能完全损坏、车道数5、驾驶员分心等因素与事故严重程度呈正相关。In order to study the factors that have an influence on the severity of injuries in lane-changing accidents,this paper selects 18 relevant influencing factors from various characteristics of drivers,roads,vehicles and road environments and construct a random parametric Logit model with heterogeneity in mean and variance at the same time,on the other hand uses the mean elasticity coefficients to quantitatively describe the influencing factors of each significant variable on accident severity.The results show that minor damage to the vehicle disabling function is a random variable,the driver s gender is male and the driver s distraction have a heterogeneous effect on its mean,and the airbag not opening have a heterogeneous effect on its variance.Factors such as impaired vision,complete damage to the vehicle s disabling function,number of lanes 5 and driver distraction are positively associated with crash severity.

关 键 词：交通工程 换道事故 均值方差异质性 弹性系数 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]