基于PLUS模型的金佛山自然保护地毗邻区土地利用变化模拟与多情景预测  

Simulation and Multi-scenario Prediction of Land Use Change in the Adjacent Area of Jinfo Mountain Reserve Based on PLUS Model

作　　者：杜文武[1] 胡瑶[1] 刘渝杰 眭淼 DU Wenwu;HU Yao;LIU Yujie;SUI Miao(College of Horticulture and Landscape Architecture,Southwest University,Chongqing,China,400715)

机构地区：[1]西南大学园艺园林学院,重庆400715

出　　处：《园林》2023年第10期4-13,共10页Landscape Architecture Academic Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“自然保护地及其毗邻区景观梯度结构效应与协同机制”(编号:52278078)。

摘　　要：位于自然保护地边界以外的毗邻区,土地超载、破坏性利用及管控乏力现象普遍,对自然保护地本体造成严重威胁。科学预测土地利用变化趋势,是理解毗邻区土地利用变化对自然保护地本体生态安全影响,进而制定针对性管控措施的重要前提。运用PLUS模型,基于2000年、2010年、2020年三期土地利用数据,分析2000-2020年重庆金佛山自然保护地毗邻区土地利用变化时空格局及其驱动力,并设置自然发展、城镇发展、生态保护三种情景,模拟预测2040年保护地毗邻区土地利用情况。结果表明:(1)金佛山自然保护地毗邻区土地利用类型以林地、耕地为主;2000-2020年间,耕地、林地面积减少,建设用地面积大幅增加,转入来源主要为林地和耕地;(2)PLUS模型对金佛山自然保护地毗邻区土地利用驱动因子的解释能力较好,其中,对耕地、林地、建设用地面积变化解释力度最大的驱动因子均为NDVI指数和人口密度;(3)PLUS模型在金佛山自然保护地毗邻区的适用性较强,总体精度为0.95,Kappa系数为0.92,远高于0.75;(4)三种情景下,地类变化趋势均为林地、耕地面积减少,建设用地面积由保护地毗邻区逐渐向本体边界处蔓延。研究表明,PLUS模型适用于同类型自然保护地毗邻区土地利用模拟研究;仅对毗邻区生态类用地进行保护限制不足以遏制建设用地向本体扩张,亟需对毗邻区人类活动进行更为精细化的管控。Located in the adjacent areas outside the boundary of the protected areas,land overload,destructive utilization,and weak man-agement and control are common,which pose a serious threat to the protected areas themselves.Scientifi c prediction of land use change trend is an important prerequisite for understanding the impact of land use change in adjacent areas on the ecological security of nature reserves and then formulating targeted control measures.Based on the data on land use in 2000,2010,and 2020,this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial pattern of land use change and its driving factors in the adjacent area of Jinfo Mountain from 2000 to 2020,and sets up three scenarios of natural development,urban development,and ecological protection to simulate and predict the land use situation in the adjacent area of the protected areas in 2040.The results show that:(1)The land use types in the adjacent area of Jinfo Mountain are mainly woodland and cultivated land;From 2000 to 2020,the area of cultivated land and forest land decreased,while the area of construction land increased signifi cantly,and the main sources of transfer were forest land and cultivated land;(2)The PLUS model has a good explanatory power to the driving factors of land use in the adjacent area of Jinfo Mountain,among which the driving factors that explain the area changes of cultivated land,forest land and construction land most strongly are NDVI index and population density;(3)The PLUS model has strong applicability in the adjacent area of Jinfo Mountain,with an overall accuracy of 0.95 and Kappa coeffi cient of 0.92,much higher than 0.75;(4)Under the three scenarios,the change trend of land types is that the area of forest land and cultivated land decreases,and the area of construction land gradually spreads from the adjacent area of protected areas to the boundary of ontology.This research indicates that the PLUS model is suitable for land use simulation research in the adjacent area of the same type of protected areas.Only protecting and res

关 键 词：自然保护地 毗邻区 PLUS模型 土地利用变化 模拟预测 

分 类 号：TU986[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]