基于GMOP-PLUS耦合模型的京津冀土地利用变化多情景模拟及功能关系分析  

Multi-scenario Simulation and Functional Relationship Analysis of Land Use Change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on GMOP-PLUS Coupling Model

作　　者：张波[1,2,3] 潘佩佩 王新云 温佳昱[1,2,3] 任佳璇[1,2,3] 刘苗苗 ZHANG Bo;PAN Peipei;WANG Xinyun;WEN Jiayu;REN Jiaxuan;LIU Miaomiao(School of Geographical Sciences,Hebei Normal University,Shijiazhuang 050024;Hebei Technology Innovation Center for Remote Sensing Identification of Environmental Change,Shijiazhuang 050024;Hebei Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Ecological Construction,Shijiazhuang 050024;School of Ecology and Environmental Science,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]河北师范大学地理科学学院,河北石家庄050024 [2]河北省环境变化遥感识别技术创新中心,河北石家庄050024 [3]河北省环境演变与生态建设实验室,河北石家庄050024 [4]宁夏大学生态环境学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2023年第5期8-16,共9页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：河北省高等学校自然科学研究重点项目(ZD2021067);宁夏自然科学基金项目(2022AAC03097);国家自然科学基金项目(42207551)。

摘　　要：该文利用GMOP-PLUS耦合模型预测2030年京津冀地区多情景下的土地利用格局,探究土地利用变化的影响因素,通过土地利用功能测度探究不同模拟情景下“三生”空间功能之间的关系,结果表明:①自然因素在土地利用变化中起基础性作用,其中坡度、DEM、温度和降水贡献度均超过6%;除未利用地外,人口因素贡献度均超过11%,是其他土地利用类型变化的主导因素;主要交通线对建设用地、耕地和草地的扩张具有重要影响,贡献度均超过4.5%。②预测结果总体呈耕地和草地减少、林地和建设用地增加的趋势,其中建设用地扩张能力最强,耕地较多被占用,但不同情景下土地利用类型增减幅度不同。③4种情景下京津冀土地生产功能与生活功能、生态功能存在权衡关系,生活功能与生态功能具有协同关系,但不同情景下权衡/协同关系有明显的县域差异。生态涵养情景下耦合协调度最高(0.9089),其次是经济发展情景和耕地保护情景,而惯性发展情景下耦合协调度最低。未来发展应充分考虑生态涵养情景,作为促进国土空间优化和区域社会经济协调发展的土地利用策略。This paper takes the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as the research object,predicts the land use pattern under multiple scenarios in 2030 based on the GMOP-PLUS coupling model,explores the influencing factors of land use change,and analyzes the relationship among production,living and ecological functions for simulation results through land use function measurement,providing reasonable reference for the future optimization of land use structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.It is found as follows.①Natural factors play a fundamental role in land use change,among which slope,DEM,temperature and precipitation all contribute more than 6%.The population factor is the dominant factor of land use types except unused land.The main traffic lines have an important impact on the expansion of construction land,cultivated land and grassland,and their contribution is more than 4.5%.②The predicted results show a general trend of decrease of cultivated land and grassland,and increase of forest land and construction land.The expansion capacity of construction land is the strongest,mostly occupying cultivated land.However,the increase and decrease of land use types in different scenarios are also different.③Under the four scenarios,there are trade-off relationships between production function and living function and ecological function in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,and there is synergistic relationship between living function and ecological function,but there are obvious unit differences for trade-off/synergistic relationships under different scenarios.The coupling coordination degree of ecological conservation scenario is the highest(0.9089),belonging to the highly coordinated type,followed by the economic development scenario and cultivated land protection scenario,and the inertial development scenario is the lowest.Therefore,ecological conservation scenario should be fully considered in future development,which can be used as a land use strategy to promote the optimization of territorial space and the coordinate

关 键 词：土地利用 多情景模拟 GMOP模型 PLUS模型 京津冀 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] F301.2[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]