基于重心和自相关分析的中国能源生产消费时空格局演化特征研究  

Evolutionary Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Energy Production and Consumption in China Based on the Center of Gravity and Autocorrelation Analysis

作　　者：张莹 王泽根 杨也 杨汶桐 何继武 姜玖林 ZHANG Ying;WANG Zegen;YANG Ye;YANG Wentong;HE Jiwu;JIANG Jiuin(School of Geoscience and Technology,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,Sichuan Province,China;College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Hainan Normal University,Haikou 571158,Hainan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学地球科学与技术学院,四川省成都市610500 [2]海南师范大学地理与环境科学学院,海南省海口市571158

出　　处：《全球能源互联网》2023年第5期547-557,共11页Journal of Global Energy Interconnection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“科技助力经济2020”重点专项(SQ2020YFF0414359);中国石油-西南石油大学创新联合体科技合作项目(2020CX020000)。

摘　　要：研究能源生产消费变化对实现“碳中和”目标具有重要意义,然而中国常规能源的时空演化格局还有待深入研究。基于2010—2019年原油、原煤和天然气生产消费量和能源产消总量,使用空间自相关和重心分析方法,探析全国和各省份能源结构,全国及各省份原煤、原油和天然气生产量时空变化格局。结果显示:(1)中国能源生产量高的区域在煤炭的产地,中国能源消费量高的区域偏向东部,与各类能源生产量高的区域存在空间不平衡;(2)2010—2019年能源产消重心、原煤产消重心和原油生产重心都有向西移动的趋势,原油消费向南移动,天然气生产消费整体向东移动,西部地区对能源的需求正在逐步变大,中国一直以来以煤炭为主的能源结构正在缓慢改变,新能源和天然气的生产量逐步上升。研究结论为中国制定降碳能源政策和改善区域能源产消不平衡提供了参考。The study of energy production and consumption is important for achieving the goal of“carbon neutrality”,but the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of conventional energy in China are still unclear.In this paper,spatial autocorrelation and center of gravity analysis are employed to explore the energy mix as well as the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of the production of raw coal,crude oil,and natural gas in China and in each province based on the data of production and consumption of the crude oil,raw coal,and natural gas from 2010 to 2019.The results reveal that:①the regions with high energy production in China are located in the areas where coal is produced and the regions with high energy consumption in China are placed in eastern China,which are different from the regions with high production of all kinds of energy above since the spatial imbalance exists;②the centers of gravity of the production and consumption of energy,raw coal and the production of crude oil tend to move westward,while the center of gravity of the consumption of crude oil and natural gas move toward south and east respectively.The energy mix of China,which has been dominated by coal,is changing slowly as the energy demand is gradually becoming bigger and the production of new energy and natural gas are gradually rising.The conclusion of this study provides a reference for policy-making in carbon reduction and easing the regional imbalance of energy production and consumption.

关 键 词：常规能源 重心分析 时空分析 空间自相关分析 地理信息系统 

分 类 号：P968[天文地球—自然地理学] F426.2[经济管理—产业经济]