基于风险矩阵法和Borda序值法的城市埋地燃气管道风险评价研究  

*Research on risk assessment of urban buried gas pipeline based on risk matrix method and Borda ranking method

作　　者：张鹏[1] 潘灏航 杨宗强 ZHANG Peng;PAN Haohang;YANG Zongqiang(School of Civil Engineering and Geomatics,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu Sichuan 610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学土木工程与测绘学院,四川成都610500

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2023年第9期116-122,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50974105);中国工程院重大咨询项目(2011-ZD-20);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20105121110003)。

摘　　要：为解决传统风险矩阵在风险评价研究中会产生“风险结”,进而导致难以对同一风险等级中的风险事件进行重要度排序等问题,提出1种基于风险矩阵法与Borda序值法相结合的方法,对城市埋地燃气管道风险评价进行研究。首先,采用风险矩阵法对各风险事件进行风险发生可能性等级划分,该过程会产生“风险结”问题;然后,采用线性插值法和Borda排序对传统风险矩阵进行修正;最后,利用该方法对某城市埋地燃气管道风险进行评价。研究结果表明:该方法可以将各个风险事件按照重要度进行排序,进而有效提高风险评价结果准确性;利用该方法评价得到某段城市埋地燃气管道风险等级为中风险。研究结果可为有效预防城市地面活动破坏、设计缺陷、设备故障等重要风险事件,进而为减少城市埋地燃气管道失效等事故发生率等提供一定参考。In order to solve the problem that the traditional risk matrix will produce“risk knots”in the risk assessment research,which leads to the inability to rank the importance of risk events in the same risk level,the risk assessment study on the urban buried gas pipelines was conducted based on a combined method of risk matrix method and Borda ranking method.Firstly,the risk matrix method was used to classify the risk occurrence possibility of each risk event,,and the“risk knots”problem would be generated in this process.Secondly,the linear interpolation method and Borda ranking method were applied to modify the traditional risk matrix.Finally,the method was used to evaluate the risk of buried gas pipeline in a city.The research results show that this method can sort each risk event according to its importance,and then effectively improve the accuracy of risk assessment results.The risk level of urban buried gas pipeline studied in this paper is the medium risk.The research results can provide some reference for preventing important risk events such as ground activity damage,design defects,equipment failure,and reducing the incidence of urban buried gas pipeline failure accidents.

关 键 词：管道安全工程 城市燃气管道 风险矩阵 Borda序值法 风险评价 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]