基于LMDI模型的甘肃省种植业生产碳排放影响因素分析及减排途径  

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Planting Production Based on LMDI Model and Approaches of Carbon Mitigation in Gansu Province

作　　者：李薇 蒙平珠 李彩弟 燕振刚[2] Li Wei;Meng Pingzhu;Li Caidi;Yan Zhengang(College of Finance and Economics,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China;College of Information Science and Technology,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]甘肃农业大学财经学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《作物杂志》2023年第5期264-271,共8页Crops

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划项目软科学专项(23JRZA450);甘肃省高校教师创新基金项目(2023B-081);甘肃省重点研发计划(21YF5FA095)。

摘　　要：种植业生产过程所产生的碳排放在农业生产活动碳排放总量中占有很大比例。因此,评估种植业碳排放量并分析其影响因素,对实现区域农业生产固碳减排有重要意义。针对甘肃种植业生产碳排放测算和影响因素进行分析,运用LMDI模型构建了碳排放指标体系,估算了甘肃省5个典型生态区域近10年的种植业生产碳排放量。结果表明,2009-2019年甘肃省种植业生产碳排放总量呈先上升后下降的趋势,而碳排放强度呈逐渐下降的趋势。河西地区的种植业生产碳排放量(0.79t C/hm^(2))最高,碳排放强度较低(0.20t C/万元),民族地区碳排放量(0.45t C/hm^(2))最低,碳排放强度(0.31t C/万元)最高。碳排放主要源于翻耕、化肥、灌溉和农用机械。农业结构、人口和经济因素对碳排放产生促进作用,其中经济因素的作用最为明显。碳排放强度和产业结构因素对种植业生产的碳排放量增加有减缓作用,其中碳排放强度的作用最为明显。由此,为了甘肃种植业的碳减排,提倡保护性轮作休耕、免耕或者少耕,有机无机肥配施,推行节水灌溉,采用新能源农用机械等农艺措施;传统农业向现代农业转变是种植业生产碳减排的主要途径。Carbon emission from planting production played large porportion of total amount of carbon emission from agricultural production.Therefore,estimating carbon emissions from planting produciton,analyzing the influencing factors,achieving the carbon sequestration and emission mitigation in regional agricultural production had important significance.Carbon emission evaluation and influencing factors were analyzed for planting production in Gansu,this study was to construct the index system of carbon emission from planting production using LMDI model,and evaluated the carbon emission from the five typical ecological zones in recent ten years.The results showed that carbon emissions from planting production during 2009 to 2019 generally increased first and then declined,but the carbon emission intensity decreased gradually.Hexi region had the highest carbon emissions(0.79t C/ha)from planting production and a lower carbon emission intensity(0.20t C/×104 yuan).The nationality region had the lowest carbon emissions(0.45t C/ha)and the highest carbon emission intensity(0.31t C/×104yuan).Tillage,fertilizer,irrigation and machinery were the dominant sources of carbon emission.Agricultural structure,population and economic factors had effectively effects on carbon emissions,and impact of economy factor was more obvious.Carbon emission intensity and industrial structure had inhibiting effects on carbon emissions,and the impact of carbon emission intensity was more obvious.Thus,to mitigate carbon emissions from planting production in Gansu,the main approaches should be application of agronomic measures of protective crop rotation,no-tillage or less tillage,combined application of organic and inorganic fertilizer,water saving irrigation,use of new energy agricultural machinery.The transformation of traditional agriculture to modern agriculture is the main way to reduce carbon emissions in planting production.

关 键 词：LMDI因素分解模型 种植业生产 碳排放 影响因素 碳减排途径 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]