气候变化对拉萨河谷冬小麦主要生育期的影响分析  

Impacts of Climate Change on the Major Growth Stage of Winter Wheat in Lhasa River Valley from 1996 to 2021

作　　者：晋美朗杰 巴桑[2] 郭艺楠 杜军 德庆卓嘎[2] JIGME Namgyal;PA Sang;GUO Yinan;DU Jun;DECHEN Dolkar(Lhasa Meteorological Atmospheric Sounding Centre,Lhasa 850001,China;Tibet Institute of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences/Tibet Open Laboratory of Plateau Atmospheric and Environmental Science Research,Lhasa 850001,China;Tibet Meteorological Information and Network Centre,Lhasa 850001,China;Field Science Experiment Base for Comprehensive Observation of Atmospheric Water Cycle in Mêdog County,CMA,Mêdog 860700,China)

机构地区：[1]拉萨市气象局大气探测中心,拉萨850001 [2]西藏高原大气环境科学研究所/西藏高原大气环境研究开放实验室,拉萨850001 [3]西藏自治区气象信息网络中心,拉萨850001 [4]中国气象局墨脱大气水分循环综合观测野外科学试验基地,墨脱860700

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2023年第3期73-79,共7页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0106);中国气象科学研究院青藏高原与极地气象科学研究所开放课题(ITPP2021K03);西藏科技创新基地自主研究项目(XZ2021JR0001G)。

摘　　要：了解气候变化对冬小麦生育期的影响,可为农业应对气候变化、调整农作物种植结构提供科学依据。本文利用1996—2022年近26 a拉萨冬小麦生育期以及逐日平均气温(T_(m))、最高气温(T_(max))、最低气温(T_(min))、气温日较差(DTR)、相对湿度(RH)、降水量(Pr)、日照时数(S)和≥0℃积温(ΣT_(0))等资料,采用线性倾向估计、Pearson相关系数和优势分析方法等,分析了拉萨河谷冬小麦生育期变化特征以及影响的主导气象因子。结果表明:(1)近26 a拉萨河谷冬小麦营养生长期(Vegetative Growth Period,VGP)、生殖生长期(Reproductive Growth Period,RGP)和全生育期(Whole Growth Period,WGP)的T_(m)均呈上升趋势,T_(min)升温率大于T_(max)的升温率,DTR、RH呈减小趋势,ΣT_(0)、Pr和S趋于增加。(2)冬小麦拔节前各生育期提早,提早率为0.47~6.75 d/10 a;拔节后各生育期推迟,推迟率为3.17~7.03 d/10 a;VGP、WGP延长,RGP缩短。(3)拉萨河谷10月、1月T_(min)和2月T_(m)的升高,是冬小麦出苗、分蘖和返青期提前的主要因素,导致冬小麦拔节后生育期推迟的重要因素则是4—5月S增加及6月RH减少。Understanding the impact of climate change on the growth period of winter wheat is helpful to provide a basis for agriculture to cope with climate change and adjust crop planting structure.Based on the data of winter wheat growth period and daily average temperature(T_(m)),maximum temperature(T_(max)),minimum temperature(T_(min)),diurnal temperature range(DTR),relative humidity(RH),precipitation(Pr),sunshine duration(S)and accumulated temperature above 0℃(ΣT_(0))et al.in Lhasa in the past 26 years(1996—2022),the variation characteristics of growth period for winter wheat and the dominant meteorological factors in Lhasa River Valley were analyzed by linear trend estimation,Pearson correlation coefficient and dominance analysis.The results showed that:(1)The T_(m)of winter wheat in vegetative growth period(VGP),reproductive growth period(RGP)and whole growth period(WGP)in Lhasa River Valley showed an upward trend in the past 26 years.The warming rate of T_(min)was greater than that of T_(max),DTR and RH showed a decreasig trend,as well as Pr,S andΣT_(0)tended to increase.(2)Each growth period of winter wheat was advanced before jointing,with a rate of 0.47~6.75d/10 a.All growth period were delayed after jointing by a rate of 3.17~7.03d/10 a,which made VGP&WGP prolong,and RGP shorten.(3)The increase of T_(min)in October and January,and T_(m)in February was the major factor for the emergence,tillering and regreening of winter wheat in Lhasa River Valley.The important factors leading to the delay of the growth period of winter wheat after jointing were the increase of S from April to May and the decrease of RH in June.

关 键 词：拉萨河谷 冬小麦 生育期 变化趋势 影响气象因子 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]