1961—2020年青海高原气候变化特征  

Characteristics of Climate Change in Qinghai Plateau from 1961 to 2020

作　　者：张璐 李红梅[1] 温婷婷 ZHANG Lu;LI Hongmei;WEN Tingting(Qinghai Climate Center,Xining 810001)

机构地区：[1]青海省气候中心,西宁810001

出　　处：《气象科技》2023年第4期489-498,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：青藏高原第二次科考项目(2019QZKK0105);国家自然科学基金项目(U20A2081、U21A2021);青海省科技厅应用基础研究项目(2021-ZJ-757)共同资助。

摘　　要：选取1961—2020年青海高原50个地面气象观测站逐月气温(平均、最高、最低)、降水和风速资料,利用气候变化趋势转折判别模型(Piecewise Linear Fitting Model,PLFIM)、气候倾向率等方法,分析青海高原气候变化的时空分布和年代际趋势转折变化等特征。结果表明:(1)近60年来青海高原年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,其中平均最低气温的升温速率尤为明显,为0.62℃·(10a)^(-1);年降水量呈波动上升趋势,进入21世纪后呈显著增加趋势,速率为39.9 mm·(10a)^(-1);年平均风速整体呈减小趋势,其中以茫崖站最为明显,风速减小速率为-0.56 m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1)。(2)年平均气温和平均最高气温在1972年和1983年发生了年代际趋势转折,平均最高气温第3次转折发生在2009年,平均最低气温没有发生明显的年代际趋势转折。年降水在1972年、1983年和2000年发生年代际趋势转折;年平均风速发生在1998年和2009年。(3)与旧气候态(1961—1990年)相比,新气候态下(1991—2020年)青海高原年平均气温、平均最高气温和平均最低气温的均值分别上升了1.16℃、1.22℃和1.81℃,向高温方向漂移,且概率密度分布形状更加偏平,气候趋于不稳定;(4)在全球变暖背景下,青海高原年平均气温和年降水量均呈增加趋势,其中年平均气温的增温速率远超中国、同纬度地区及全球平均水平;降水量年际波动较大,但整体呈增加趋势。Based on the monthly temperature(average,maximum and minimum),precipitation and wind speed data observed at 50 stations on the Qinghai Plateau from 1961 to 2020,the temporal and spatial distribution and interdecadal trend turning of climate change on the Qinghai Plateau are analyzed by using piecewise linear fitting model(PLFIM)and climate tendency rate.The results show that:(1)the temperature(average,maximum and minimum)of the Qinghai Plateau showed a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2020,among which the rate of warming of the minimum temperature was particularly obvious,with an average increase of 0.62℃per decade.Precipitation showed a fluctuating upward trend,and increased significantly after entering the 21st century,with a rate of 39.9 mm·(10a)^(-1).Wind speed showed a decreasing trend,among which the wind speed at Mangya Station was the most obvious,with a decrease rate of-0.56 m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1).(2)The average and maximum temperatures of the Qinghai Plateau experienced interdecadal trend turning in 1972 and 1983,the third turning in maximum temperature occurred in 2009,and no significant interdecadal trend turning occurred in minimum temperature.Interdecadal trend turning in precipitation occurred in 1972,1983 and 2000.The interdecadal trend turning of wind speed occurred in 1971,1998 and 2009.(3)Compared with the previous climate state(1961-1990),the annual average,maximum and minimum temperatures increased by 1.16℃,1.22℃and1.81℃respectively,from 1991 to 2020,and the probability density distribution was flatter,indicating that the temperature dispersion was greater and the climate instability was enhanced.(4)Under the background of global warming,the average temperature and precipitation on the Qinghai Plateau increased in the past 60 years,with the average temperature increasing rate much greater than those of the global,China and the same latitude regions.Interannual fluctuations in precipitation were large,but the overall trend was increasing.

关 键 词：青海高原 气候变化 气温 降水量 风速 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]