祁连山北坡东段2010—2020年人工增雨试验效果检验评估  

Inspection and Evaluation of Artificial Precipitation Enhancement Test Effectiveness in East Part of North Slope of Qilian Mountains During Period of 2010-2020

作　　者：杨永龙 钱莉[1,2] 李天江 孙占峰 YANG Yonglong;QIAN Li;LI Tianjiang;SUN Zhanfeng(Key Laboratory for Cloud Physics of China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 10o081;Wuwei Meteorological Bureau,Gansu,Wuwei 733000)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局云雾物理环境重点实验室,北京100081 [2]甘肃省武威市气象局,武威733000

出　　处：《气象科技》2023年第4期595-604,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：西北区域人工影响天气能力建设项目研究试验项目资助。

摘　　要：使用祁连山北坡中段和东段5—9月面雨量和水文资料,运用非随机人工增雨试验中的序列检验、区域对比、区域双比和区域回归等4种数理统计效果检验评估方法,对2010—2020年在祁连山北坡东段开展的人工增雨作业效果进行检验评估。试验发现:4种效果检验评估方法均证明祁连山北坡东段开展的人工增雨试验为正效果,其中区域对比、区域双比、区域历史回归试验效果检验通过了显著性水平α≤0.10的显著性检验;通过对4种评估检验方法分析,区域历史回归试验方法使用的样本容量较大,避免了人为选择历史相似天气容易引入众多主观偏倚和争议的操作程序,产生的假效果相比其他试验最小、功效最高,可作为最终评估结果,祁连山北坡东段2010—2020年平均相对人工增雨效果为26%。进一步评估了祁连山北坡东段2010—2020年开展大规模人工增雨对石羊河流域生态环境改善的影响,分析发现:石羊河年平均径流量增加了124.6%、民勤蔡旗断面年平均下泄水量增加了124.3%、民勤盆地地下水位上升了2.46 m,干涸近半个世纪的青土湖水域面积持续增大。Based on the rainfall data and hydrological data from May to September in the east part of the north slope of the Qilian Mountains,we analyze the effect of artificial rain enhancement from 2010 to 2020 by using four mathematical statistical test methods,including nonrandomized experiments,using sequence,regional comparison,regional double ratio and regional regression.The results show that artificial rain enhancement tests in the east part of the north slope of the Qilian Mountains are positive effects,proved by the four methods of effect evaluation.The effectiveness tests of region contrast,region double ratio and region regression pass the test of significance levelα≤0.10.Through the analysis of the four evaluation test methods,the regional historical regression test method uses a large sample size,avoiding the artificial selection of historically similar weather is prone to introduce numerous subjective biases and controversial operating procedures,resulting in the smallest false effect and the highest efficacy compared with other tests,which can be used as the final evaluation result.The average relative cloudseeding effectiveness in the eastern northern slope of the Qilian Mountains from 2010 to 2020 is 26%.The impact of largescale artificial rainfall on the ecological environment improvement of the Shiyang River basin in the eastern northern slope of the Qilian Mountains from 2010 to 2020 is further evaluated.The analysis finds that the annual average runoff of the Shiyang River increases by 124.6%,and the annual average discharge of the Caiqi section in Minqin increases by 124.3%.The groundwater level in Minqin Basin rises by 2.46 m,and the water area of Qingtuhu Lake,which has been dry for nearly half a century,continues to increase.

关 键 词：祁连山北坡东段 人工增雨 效果 检验评估 

分 类 号：P481[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]