社会民众新冠病毒疫苗接种意识传播模型与干预策略研究  

Research on Communication Model and Intervention Strategy of COVID-19 Vaccination Consciousness Among Public

作　　者：朱宏淼 闫辛 齐佳音 靳祯[5,6] ZHU Hong-miao;YAN Xin;QI Jia-yin;JIN Zhen(School of Management,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China;School of Statistics and Information,Shanghai University of International Business and Economics,Shanghai 201620,China;School of Cyberspace Security,Guangzhou University,Guangzhou 510006,China;Key Laboratory of Trustworthy Distributed Computing and Service,Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Beijing 100876,China;Institute of Complex Systems,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学工商管理学院,上海201620 [2]上海对外经贸大学统计与信息学院,上海201620 [3]广州大学网络空间安全学院,广东广州510006 [4]北京邮电大学可信分布式计算与服务教育部重点实验室,北京100876 [5]山西大学复杂系统研究所,山西太原030006 [6]山西大学疾病防控的数学技术与大数据分析山西省重点实验室,山西太原030006

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2023年第8期269-277,共9页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(72101143);国家自然科学基金重大项目(72293583)。

摘　　要：研究如何通过多种渠道的融合使用以促进新冠疫苗接种意识在民众间传播,对新冠疫情防控有重要意义。首先,基于多重网络理论,建立民众新冠疫苗接种意识的多渠道传播动力学模型。其次,利用该模型对新冠病毒疫病毒苗接种意识在社会民众间的传播过程进行数值仿真,提出相应的干预策略。最后,利用实际数据对模型进行参数估计,验证其有效性。研究表明:在新冠病毒疫苗接种宣传时,过多使用一种渠道或仅使用一种宣传语,容易使民众对疫苗接种产生疲劳心理,导致新冠病毒疫苗接种意识的传播效率下降,甚至使民众失去新冠病毒疫苗接种意识,因此,应适当变换宣传语,同时均衡使用各渠道进行新冠病毒疫苗接种宣传,以使各渠道间疫苗接种意识传播产生相互促进作用,进而使新冠病毒疫苗接种意识的传播效率达到最大。对疫苗接种意识偏差者进行适度心理沟通、监督与管控,使其改变对新冠病毒疫苗接种的认知偏差及抵触情绪,停止散布疫苗接种的负面谣言,将有效促进新冠病毒疫苗接种意识传播。COVID-19 is a global public health emergency that has not been encountered in a century,Since the development and evolution of this crisis presents remarkable unconventional features,it is the most effective way to prevent and control the epidemic to vaccinate the public against COVID-19.However,some people have a biased perception of the iatrogenic risk of COVID-19 vaccination,leading to hesitation or negative attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination,and they still refuse or delay vaccination when vaccine services are available.In addition,some people refuse to be vaccinated because of the cognitive bias of the COVID-19 vaccination due to social prejudice.Therefore,it is of great significance for epidemic prevention and control that how to promote the effective diffusion of vaccination consciousness among the public through the integration of multiple channels,create a favorable atmosphere for COVID-19 vaccination,and further enhance the COVID-19 vaccination consciousness.Consequently,the complex social system composed of the public and the communication through traditional media,social media and offline network to spread the COVID-19 vaccination consciousness is regarded as a multiplex network,and a transmission dynamic model of vaccination consciousness for the public with consideration of multiple channels is established based on the theory of multiplex networks in the study.The spread process of vaccination consciousness in public health emergencies is different from that of ordinary vaccination awareness.That is,the development and evolution of epidemics in public health emergencies show significant unconventional characteristics,which are mainly reflected in public health emergencies.The high-density and frequent COVID-19 vaccination publicity in a short time,which leads to the high frequency of vaccination information,makes the majority of people indifferent and ignore the necessary consciousness of vaccination,and is easy to produce mainstream fatigue psychology to COVID-19 vaccination.Secondly,the dynamic

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 新冠病毒疫苗接种意识 社会传播 多重网络 复杂系统仿真 

分 类 号：G209[文化科学—传播学]