关于光污染风险评定和策略评估的数学模型设计  

The Mathematical Model for Risk and Strategy Assessment of Light Pollution

作　　者：李英华[1] 谢婧雅 顾华宇 牟烜杪 赵润雨 王旭[1] LI Yinghua;XIE Jingya;GU Huayu;MU Xuanmiao;ZHAO Runyu;WANG Xu(Shandong University,Ji'nan Shandong 250101)

机构地区：[1]山东大学,山东济南250101

出　　处：《软件》2023年第8期133-138,共6页Software

摘　　要：由于目前国内外对光污染带来的综合影响分析不足,且缺少防治政策的评估分析,需要对光污染的实际影响和风险水平做出测评,并对防治政策做出合理的分析。关于光污染风险的评定,从评分和评级两方面进行:利用基于单核心指标关联赋权的TOPSIS综合评价算法,实现评分模型;根据评分结果,使用决策树分类,实现评级模型。关于光污染防治策略的评估,综合考虑了政策的效益和难度。政策的效益通过对风险评定模型的灵敏度分析实现;政策的难度分析由综合层次分析法实现。根据政策的效益和难度,比较付出同等成本时,不同策略的可行性,选择出最优策略。Due to the insufficient analysis of the comprehensive impact brought by light pollution at home and abroad,and the lack of assessment and analysis of the prevention and control policies.It is necessary to measure the actual impact and risk level of light pollution,and make a reasonable analysis of prevention and control policies.For the risk of light pollution model,it is assessed in terms of scoring and rating.Using the TOPSIS comprehensive evaluation algorithm which based on single core indicator correlation assignment to realize the scoring model.And using the decision tree classification to realize the rating model according to the scoring results.The evaluation of light pollution prevention and control strategies considers the effect of the policies and the difficulty of implementation.The analysis of the effect is realized by the sensitivity analysis of the risk assessment model.The difficulty analysis of implementing the policy is realized by the comprehensive analytic hierarchy process.According to the effect of the policy and difficulty of implementation,the feasibility of different strategies is compared when the same cost is paid,then the optimal strategy is selected.

关 键 词：光污染风险评定 光污染防治策略评估 单核心指标关联赋权 TOPSIS决策树 

分 类 号：O225[理学—运筹学与控制论]