不确定性因素下绿色货船船型论证研究  

Research on ship demonstration of green cargo ships under uncertain factors

作　　者：马瑜聪 金雁[1] MA Yu-cong;JIN Yan(School of Naval Architecture,Ocean and Energy Power Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学船海与能源动力工程学院,湖北武汉430063

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2023年第17期36-42,共7页Ship Science and Technology

基　　金：工信部高技术船舶创新专项(103-42200012);三峡后续工作科研项目(SXHXGZ-2021-5)。

摘　　要：针对货运船舶特点和绿色技术使用情况,建立船舶多目标主尺度优化模型,确定主要的不确定性因素并拟合其概率分布情况,利用蒙特卡罗模拟法结合参数分析法进行不确定性优化论证,得到Pareto解集和最终优化结果,将该结果与采用NSGA-Ⅱ算法得到的确定性优化论证结果进行对比。实例结果表明:考虑本文提到的不确定性因素下的船型论证基本不改变主尺度理论优选值,不确定性优化结果的各项指标较确定性优化更好且更能反映实际情况。当对货船有更高要求时,不确定性优化论证可能影响投资决策。According to the characteristics of cargo ships and green technology,the paper establishes a multi-objective principal dimensions optimization model of ships,determines the principal uncertainty factors and fits their probability distributions.The uncertainty optimization demonstration is carried out by using the Monte Carlo simulation method combined with the parameter analysis method.The Pareto solution set and the final optimization result are obtained,and the result is compared with the deterministic optimization demonstration result obtained by the NSGA-Ⅱ(non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm Ⅱ).Cases calculation shows that the ship demonstration,considering uncertainty factors mentioned in the paper,basically does not change the theoretical optimal value of the principal dimensions.The indicators of uncertain optimization results are better than those of deterministic optimization and can reflect the actual situation better.When there are higher requirements for cargo ships,the uncertainty optimization demonstration may affect investment decisions.

关 键 词：船型论证 不确定性 蒙特卡罗模拟 NSGA-Ⅱ算法 PARETO解 

分 类 号：U662[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]