2010-2019年江西省流行性腮腺炎时空聚集性分析  

Spatiotemporal clustering of mumps in Jiangxi,2010-2019

作　　者：赵玉芹[1,2] 张天琛[1,2] 刘杰[1,2] 郭世成[1] ZHAO Yu-qin;ZHANG Tian-chen;LIU Jie;GUO Shi-cheng(Jiangxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330029,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]江西省疾病预防控制中心,江西南昌330029 [2]江西省疾病预防控制中心青年科研创新攻关团队

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第18期3288-3292,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江西省卫健委科技计划项目(202211306)。

摘　　要：目的分析江西省2010-2019年流行性腮腺炎的流行特征,为疫情防控提供参考.方法病例相关信息来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统的监测数据,分别采用描述性流行病学分析、小波频率谱分析和时空扫描分析探索江西省流行性腮腺炎的人群流行特征、时间周期性及时空聚集性规律.结果2010-2019年江西省共报告流行性腮腺炎病例90229例,以15岁及以下人群为主(82256例,91.16%).全局及局部小波功率谱显示,流行性腮腺炎的流行在时间尺度上呈现12个月左右的周期性(P<0.01),6个月左右的周期性仅在2013年前较为显著(P<0.01);时空扫描分析显示,流行性腮腺炎在空间上形成五个聚集区域,其中前三位的是景德镇(时间范围:2010-2011年,LLR=2384.09,P<0.001)、赣州中部(时间范围:2018-2019年,LLR=643.53,P<0.001)、鹰潭和部分上饶地区(时间范围:2018-2019年,LLR=1308.73,P<0.001).结论江西省流行性腮腺炎的流行高峰由双峰向单峰转变,存在空间聚集性和时间周期性,建议持续开展流行病学和免疫效果的监测.Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics of mumps in Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2019,and to provide reference for future prevention and control.Methods The case-related information came from the monitoring data of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,and the descriptive epidemiological analysis,Wavelet Power Spectrum and Spatial-Temporal Scan analysis were utilized to explore the group properties,temporal periodicity and spatial aggregation of mumps in Jiangxi Province.Results A total of 90229 mumps cases were reported in Jiangxi Province from 2010 to 2019,mainly among people aged 15 years and below(82256 cases,91.16%).The global and local wavelet power spectrum analysis shown that the prevalence of mumps showed a periodicity of about 12 months(P<0.01),and the periodicity of about 6 months was only significant before 2013(P<0.01);Spatial-Temporal Scan analysis showed that mumps formed five clustered areas in space,among which the top three were Jingdezhen(time range:2010-2011,LLR=2384.09,P<0.001),central Ganzhou(time range:2018-2019,LLR=643.53,P<0.001),Yingtan and some Shangrao areas(time range:2018-2019,LLR=1308.73,P<0.001).Conclusion The epidemic peak of mumps in Jiangxi province has changed from bimodal to unimodal,with spatial aggregation and temporal periodicity.It is suggested to carry out continuous monitoring of epidemiological and immune effects.

关 键 词：流行性腮腺炎 流行特征 空间聚集性 时间周期性 

分 类 号：R512.1[医药卫生—内科学]