渐进式改革、双支柱调控转型与财政政策效果研究  

Gradual Reform,Two-pillar Regulatory Transformation and the Effects of Fiscal Policy

作　　者：陈创练 高锡蓉 徐锦辉 郭玉清[5] CHEN Chuanglian;GAO Xirong;XU Jinhui;GUO Yuqing(Institute of Financial Research,Jinan University;Southern China Institute of Finance,Jinan University;Party School of CPC Dongguan Municipal Committee;School of Economics,Jinan University;School of Economics,Nankai University)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学金融研究所,510632 [2]暨南大学南方高等金融研究院,510632 [3]中共东莞市委党校,523083 [4]暨南大学经济学院,510632 [5]南开大学经济学院,300071

出　　处：《经济研究》2023年第8期43-61,共19页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目(21AZD027)的资助。

摘　　要：宏观审慎政策和货币政策如何配合促进财政政策提质增效是中国宏观调控关注的重点,本文以实证为基础,构建了嵌入双支柱政策和财政政策的动态随机一般均衡模型,通过数值模拟分别评估家庭和企业两类信贷约束变化的财政政策乘数效应。研究表明,基于不同微观主体的信贷约束对财政政策效果的影响存在显著差异,而宏观审慎政策由强变弱和货币政策盯住产出系数变小能够增强政府消费和转移支付的乘数效应,但同时也会导致所得税和广义消费税对经济增长的抑制作用变大。本文进一步探讨了“以信贷约束为代表的宏观审慎政策+混合型或价格型或数量型货币政策”等双支柱调控转型对财政政策效果的影响效应,认为家庭信贷约束由弱变强对财政政策乘数效应的影响极小,但是,如果针对企业的信贷约束由弱变强则必将极大削弱财政政策效果。How macro prudential policies and monetary policies cooperate to improve the quality and efficiency of fiscal policies is the focus of China's macro control.Based on the empirical results,this paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model embedded with the two-pllar policy and fiscal policies and evaluates the multiplier effects of fiscal policies on changes in credit constraints of households and enterprises through numerical simulation.We systematically examine the dynamic impact of gradual reform of credit constraints on five types of fiscal policy multipliers and explore the mechanism of the impact of credit constraint intensity change and monetary policy transformation on the effectiveness of fiscal policies based on the counterfactual method.Compared with the existing research,the marginal contributions of this paper are mainly reflected in the following three points.Firstly,this paper divides the non-patient sectors into non-patient families and non-patient entrepreneurs,builds a multi-sector DSGE model that simultaneously embeds the dual credit constraints of families and enterprises,collects the data of enterprise credit constraints manually for the first time,and calibrates the parameters according to the actual situation in China.It also measures the multiplier effects of fiscal policies under different combinations of credit constraints for households and enterprises.Secondly,based on the above model framework,the counterfactual method is used to compare and characterize the impact of monetary policy transformation or policy preference changes on the fiscal policy multiplier under different household credit constraint or enterprise credit constraint intensities,to explore how effective combination of"two-pillar"policies can achieve quality and efficiency improvement of fiscal policies and to provide useful references for policy formulation and implementation.Thirdly,by iteratively solving the DSCE model in an innovative manner,we fit the dynamic evolution of fiscal policy multip

关 键 词：宏观审慎政策 货币政策转型 财政政策乘数 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F812.0