2013-2022年郑州市二七区丙型肝炎流行特征及趋势预测  

Prevalence Characteristics and Trend Forecast of Hepatitis C in Erqi District of Zhengzhou from 2013 to 2022

作　　者：秦利娟[1] 刘玉[1] 郭素梅 陈毛毛 QIN Lijuan;LIU Yu;GUO Sumei;CHEN Maomao(Erqi Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhengzhou Henan 450015,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州市二七区疾病预防控制中心,郑州450015

出　　处：《河南医学高等专科学校学报》2023年第5期534-538,共5页Journal of Henan Medical College

摘　　要：目的了解郑州市二七区丙型肝炎(简称丙肝)流行特征,预测发病趋势,为制定丙肝防治措施提供科学依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2013—2022年二七区丙肝病例信息,应用描述性流行病学方法分析流行特征,通过灰色GM(1,1)模型预测发病趋势。结果2013—2022年二七区共报告丙肝病例4820例,年均发病率为58.41/10万,发病率呈逐年下降趋势(χ^(2)_(趋势)=1101.617,P<0.001)。二七区大学路街道病例最多(730例,占15.15%),发病率最高(1165.28/10万)。每年各月均有发病,无明显季节特征(P>0.05)。男女比例为0.97∶1,发病率差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。报告病例年龄(52.78±15.53)岁,40~64岁年龄组的病例占60.23%(2903例),≥65岁年龄组占21.89%(1055例)且构成比逐年增加(χ^(2)_(趋势)=28.012,P<0.001)。职业以家务及待业、离退人员和农民为主,占71.58%(3450例)。灰色GM(1,1)模型预测丙肝发病率拟合评定等级为“好”,预测2020—2024年丙肝发病率分别为44.26/10万、39.46/10万、35.18/10万、31.36/10万、27.96/10万。结论二七区丙肝发病率呈下降趋势,但仍处于高流行态势,应加强重点人群和重点地区的宣传力度,增强防病意识,积极探索防控新模式。Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C(Hepatitis C)in Erqi District of Zhengzhou City,predict the trend of incidence,and provide a scientific basis for the development of preventive and curative measures against Hepatitis C.Methods Through the China Disease Control and Prevention Information System,information on hepatitis C cases in Erqi District was collected from 2013 to 2022,and descriptive epidemiological methods were applied to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and predict the incidence trend through the gray GM(1,1)model.Results A total of 4,820 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Erqi District from 2013 to 2022,with an average annual incidence rate of 58.41/100,000,and the incidence rate showed a decreasing trend year by year(2trend=1101.617,P<0.001).The street of Daxue Road in Erqi District had the most cases(730 cases,15.15%)and the highest incidence rate(1,165.28/100,000).There were cases in all months of the year,with no obvious seasonal characteristics(P>0.05).The male-to-female ratio was 0.97∶1,and the difference in incidence rates was not statistically significant(P>0.05).The age of reported cases was(52.78±15.53)years,with 60.23%(2,903 cases)of cases in the age group of 40-64 years and 21.89%(1,055 cases)in the age group of≥65 years and the constitutive ratio was increasing year by year(2trend=28.012,P<0.001).Occupation was dominated by housework,non-engaged,retired and farmers,accounting for 71.58%(3,450 cases).The gray GM(1,1)model predicted the incidence rate of hepatitis C with a fit rating of“good”,and the predicted incidence rates of hepatitis C from 2020 to 2024 were 44.26/100,000,39.46/100,000,35.18/100,000,31.36/100,000,27.96/per 100,000 people.Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis C in Erqi District is on a downward trend,but it is still in a high prevalence situation,and the publicity of key populations and key areas should be strengthened to enhance the awareness of disease prevention and to actively explore new modes of preventi

关 键 词：丙型肝炎 流行特征 二七区 趋势预测 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R512.62[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]