珠三角某市校园传染病疫情预警系统运行分析  

Operation analysis of early warning system for campus infectious disease epidemics in a city of Pearl River Delta

作　　者：黄恩妙[1] 陈秀云[1] 陈雪琴[1] 周郁潮[1] HUANG Enmiao;CHEN Xiuyun;CHEN Xueqin;ZHOU Yuchao(Zhongshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhongshan 528403,Guangdong,China)

机构地区：[1]中山市疾病预防控制中心,广东中山528403

出　　处：《中国校医》2023年第7期507-510,共4页Chinese Journal of School Doctor

基　　金：中山市社会公益与基础研究项目(2021B1109)。

摘　　要：目的分析珠三角某市校园传染病疫情预警系统运行情况,为完善预警机制提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法分析2019年1月—2021年6月珠三角某市校园传染病疫情预警信息特征,并结合同期校园传染病突发公共卫生事件报告情况评价系统预警效果。结果2019年1月—2021年6月珠三角某市校园传染病疫情预警系统共发出658条预警信息,24 h预警响应率为100%,预警病种以手足口病、水痘、流行性感冒为主,占全部预警信息的93.31%(614/658);预警信息总体呈双峰分布,最高峰在4—5月,次高峰在12月;主要发生场所为托幼机构(占56.53%)及小学(占28.12%)。同期共报告校园传染病突发公共卫生事件38起,系统预警20起,系统预警灵敏度为52.63%,阳性预测值为3.04%。结论珠三角某市校园传染病疫情预警系统有早期预警作用,可通过提高传染病报告质量进一步优化,并结合症状监测等,健全多渠道监测预警机制。Objective To analyze the operation of the early warning system of infectious disease epidemics in a city in the Pearl River Delta,so as to provide scientific evidences for improving the early warning mechanism.Methods A descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the characteristics of early warning information of campus infectious disease epidemics in a city in the Pearl River Delta from January 2019 to June 2021,and the early warning effect of the system was evaluated based on the reporting of campus infectious disease public health emergencies during the same period.Results From January 2019 to June 2021,a total of 658 early warning messages were issued by the early warning system of infectious diseases in the city in the Pearl River Delta,with a 24-hour early warning response rate of 100%.The early warning diseases were mainly hand-foot-mouth disease,varicella,and influenza,accounting for 93.31%(614/658)of all early warning information.The early warning information was generally bimodal distribution,with the highest peak in April-May and the second peak in December.The main places of occurrence were childcare institutions(56.53%)and primary schools(28.12%).During the same period,a total of 38 public health emergencies of campus infectious diseases were reported,20 were systematically alerted,the sensitivity of systematic early warning was 52.63%,and the positive predictive value was 3.04%.Conclusion The early warning system of infectious disease epidemics in the city in the Pearl River Delta has an early warning effect,and the multi-channel monitoring and early warning mechanism can be improved by improving the quality of infectious disease reporting and combining symptom monitoring.

关 键 词：学校 托幼机构 传染病 预警 灵敏度 

分 类 号：R184[医药卫生—流行病学]