分析师极端荐股表现与声誉获取  

The impact of extreme performance of analysts’stock recommendations on reputation acquisition

作　　者：吴偎立[1] WU Wei-li(School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2023年第7期133-158,共26页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71702205);2020年度中央财经大学“青年英才”培育支持计划资助项目。

摘　　要：本文以卖方分析师在《新财富》最佳分析师评选中获奖作为其声誉获取的代理变量,实证研究了分析师股票推荐的极端表现对其声誉获取的影响.发现:1)在控制分析师年度平均股票推荐表现后,其年度最佳(最差)股票推荐表现进入全市场年度最佳(最差)表现,对其获奖概率有显著正面(负面)影响;2)分析师的已有声誉对上述机制具有放大作用——对曾经获奖的分析师而言,其年度最佳(最差)股票推荐表现进入全市场年度最佳(最差)表现,对其获奖概率的正面(负面)影响更大;3)分析师的年度最佳股票推荐表现和最差股票推荐表现对其获奖概率的影响非对称——分析师的最佳和最差股票推荐表现同时进入全市场年度最佳和最差表现,对其获奖概率有正面影响;4)荐股报告发布前一段时间的股票原始收益率和超额收益率进入全市场年度荐股最佳表现,对其获奖概率也有显著正向影响.Using whether a sell-side analyst can win in the New Fortune best analyst selection as a proxy for analyst reputation acquisition,this paper empirically studies how the extreme performance of an analyst's stock recommendations affects his reputation acquisition.The paper finds that:1) Whether an analyst's best(worst) stock recommendation enters the annual best(worst) stock recommendations in the whole stock market has a significant positive(negative) impact on the analyst's probability of winning;2) An analysts' current reputation can magnify the above mechanism:An analyst's best(worst) stock recommendations enteringannual best(worst) stock recommendations has a larger positive(negative) impact on his(her) probability of winning if he(she) has won awards in the past;3) The impacts of an analyst's best and worst stock recommendations on the probability of winning are asymmetric:If an analyst's best stock recommendation and worst stock recommendationenter the annual best stock and worst stock recommendations in the market,then the net impact on his probability of winning is positive;4) If the stock return performance prior to the stock recommendation is among the best recommendations in the whole market,it also has a significant positive impact on the probability of winning.

关 键 词：证券分析师 股票推荐极端表现 《新财富》最佳分析师评选 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]