中国与中东欧国家贸易便利化问题研究  

Trade Facilitation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries

作　　者：刁莉 丁禹竹[2] 樊筠茹 Diao Li;Ding Yuzhu;Fan Junru

机构地区：[1]武汉大学欧洲问题研究中心 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [3]武汉大学法学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2023年第4期23-45,162,163,共25页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：“2023年度武汉大学国别和区域(地区)问题”课题(WHUGBQY2023-06)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在乌克兰危机升级、欧洲能源危机加剧的大背景下,积极发展中国与中东欧国家的经贸合作有着重要的意义。提升贸易便利化水平是深化贸易合作的重要一环,也可为中国继续高质量推动“一带一路”在中东欧地区的发展助力添彩。本文利用GTAP模型,运用动态递归法将GTAP10.0数据库中的数据外推到2021年,对2014~2021年中国和中东欧国家双边贸易便利化水平提升进行模拟,并预测其对双方国家宏观经济、双边贸易以及世界其他国家的影响。研究发现,贸易便利化水平提升在开发双边贸易潜力、拉动经济增长、提高社会福利水平中的作用明显超过关税壁垒的改善,这种促进作用是双向的、互益的;同时,中国和中东欧国家贸易便利化水平的提高对世界其他国家的负面影响相对来说并不显著。未来中国与中东欧国家应削减贸易壁垒,改善进出口贸易运输流通环境,保证物流畅通;简化通关流程,提升通关效率,降低贸易成本;加强能源供给的多元化,推动可再生能源的高质量发展;强化中国与中东欧国家的产业链合作,加大对高新技术产业投资,促进产业转型升级。It is of great significance to actively develop the economic and trade cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war and the energy crisis in Europe.Trade facilitation is an important part of deepening trade cooperation,and it will also help China continue to promote the development of the Belt and Road Initiative in Central and Eastern Europe with high quality.This paper uses the GTAP model and the dynamic recursive method to extrapolate the data in the GTAP10.0 database to 2021,simulate the improvement of the bilateral trade facilitation level between China and Central and Eastern European countries(CEEC)in 2014-2021,and predict its impact on the macroeconomic,bilateral trade and other countries in the world.At the same time,we set bilateral tariffs to reduce by the same margin,which contrasts with the impact of trade facilitation.It is found that the role of trade facilitation in developing the potential of bilateral trade,stimulating economic growth,and improving the level of social welfare was significantly greater than that of tariff barriers,which was two-way and mutually beneficial;At the same time,the improvement of trade facilitation between China and Central and Eastern European countries has a relatively insignificant negative impact on other countries in the world.The two sides should further take the following measures:Reduce trade barriers,improve the transportation and circulation environment of import and export trade,and ensure smooth logistics;Simplify the customs clearance process and improve customs clearance efficiency to reduce trade costs;Strengthen the diversification of energy supply and promote the high-quality development of renewable energy;Strengthen industrial chain cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries,increase investment in high-tech industries,and promote industrial transformation and upgrading.

关 键 词：中国—中东欧 贸易便利化 GTAP模型 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易] F755[经济管理—产业经济]