成熟时机理论与明斯克协议谈判  

Ripeness Theory and the Negotiations of the Minsk Agreements

作　　者：时子晗 Shi Zihan

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2023年第4期87-105,164,165,共21页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重大专项(21VGQ010)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：俄乌冲突对地缘政治有着深远的影响,俄罗斯针对乌克兰开展的特别军事行动已持续一年之久,而这也被认为是明斯克协议的失败。尽管如此,明斯克协议的达成在一定程度上遏制了顿巴斯地区冲突的进一步升级。2015年乌克兰和俄罗斯关于顿巴斯地区冲突的谈判在德国和法国的调停下得以开启并达成明斯克协议。本文通过对明斯克协议谈判的过程分析,基于成熟时机理论评估谈判成功开启的原因,认为谈判中的三个要素对开启和推动谈判进程至关重要,包括主观层面对于互相伤害僵局的认知、愿意寻找共同出路的意愿以及相互吸引的机会。互相伤害僵局作为推动因素将冲突各方推出冲突本身,使冲突各方从主观层面或在第三方的调停下意识到各方无法通过暴力冲突取得绝对胜利,而后两个条件则作为拉动因素将冲突各方拉向谈判并推动谈判持续进行。其中,寻找共同出路的意愿将冲突各方拉向谈判桌,但其存在不能完全确保协议的达成,因此相互吸引的机会在前两个因素的作用下,将冲突各方从谈判过程中拉出并达成最终协议。以上三个因素的共同作用使得谈判成功开启并持续进而达成协议。而现阶段俄乌冲突中各方对于以上三个因素的主观认知缺失也使得谈判难以进行。The Russia-Ukraine conflict far-reaching impacts on global geopolitics.Russia's special military operation against Ukraine has lasted for a year,which is considered to be the failure of the Minsk Agreement.Nevertheless,the conclusion of the Minsk Agreement has curbed the further escalation of the conflict in Donbass to some extent.In2015,under the mediation of Germany and France,negotiations between Ukraine and Russia on the conflict in Donbass were opened and Minsk Agreement was reached,thus avoiding further escalation of the conflict.Based on the analysis of the negotiation process of Minsk Agreements and the Ripeness Theory,this article holds that three factors are very important to start and promote the negotiation process:the subjective understanding of mutually hurting stalemate,the willingness to find a common way out,and the mutually enticing opportunity.As a driving factor,mutually hurting stalemate pushes all parties out of the conflict,making all parties realize subjectively or under the mediation of a third party that they cannot achieve absolute victory through violent conflict,while the latter two conditions serve as a pulling factor to pull all parties to the conflict to the negotiations and promote the negotiations to continue.The joint action of the three factors enabled the negotiations to start,continue and finally reached an agreement.At present,the lack of subjective understanding of the parties to the Russia-Ukraine conflict about the above three factors makes it difficult to negotiate.

关 键 词：谈判 冲突管理 顿巴斯 俄乌冲突 成熟时机理论 明斯克协议 

分 类 号：D851.2[政治法律—政治学] D851.13[政治法律—外交学]