美国对华贸易摩擦的出口偏转效应研究——来自2009—2021年月度数据的证据  

Export Deflection Effects of U.S.Trade Frictions Against China:Evidence Based on Monthly Data from 2009 to 2021

作　　者：吕建兴 张少华 邱彩霞 Lyu Jianxing;Zhang Shaohua;Qiu Caixia(School of Economics and Statistics,Guangzhou University)

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2023年第5期55-78,共24页Economic Science

摘　　要：如何有效应对贸易摩擦,是中国推进高水平对外开放的必经之路。本文基于2009—2021年中国与50个国家产品层面的月度数据,利用三重差分法实证分析美国对华贸易摩擦对中国出口美国和非美国市场的影响。研究发现,第一,样本期间美国对华贸易摩擦涉事产品年均增速31.34%,主要围绕贱金属制品、化工产品等,且显性的关税保护措施逐步被隐性的非关税保护措施替代。第二,美国对华贸易摩擦导致中国对美国出口减少94.48%,同时中国对非美国市场出口仅增加8%,可见虽然中国利用出口偏转来应对贸易摩擦,但还不足以抵消巨大的负面冲击。第三,面对美国的贸易摩擦,中国出口主要偏转到日本、荷兰和德国等发达国家,且高技术产品出口偏转到发达国家的现象更明显,而中低技术产品、不同生产阶段产品以及不同贸易摩擦类型均呈现对部分国家增加出口而对部分国家减少出口的分化特征。Effectively addressing trade frictions is critical for China to promote high-level openness.Based on the monthly product-level data between China and 50 countries from 2009 to 2021,this paper uses the difference-in-difference-in-differences(DDD)method to analyze the impacts of trade frictions initiated by the U.S.against China's exports to both the U.S.and nonU.S.markets.The key findings are as follows.(1)Throughout the sample period,the average annual growth rate of products affected by U.S.-initiated trade frictions against China was 31.34%.This impact was primarily observed in base metal and chemical products.Notably,explicit tariff protection measures were gradually replaced by implicit non-tariff protection measures.(2)The U.S.trade frictions against China led to a significant 94.48%decrease in China's exports to the U.S.However,China's exports to non-U.S.markets only increased by 8%.This suggests that while China employed export deflection as a strategy to mitigate the negative impact of trade frictions,it was insufficient to fully offset the substantial decline in exports to the U.S.(3)In response to the U.S.trade frictions,China's main export deflection occurred towards other developed countries such as Japan,the Netherlands and Germany.There was a noticeable trend of high-tech product export deflection towards developed countries.In contrast,medium and low-tech products,products at different stages of production,and various types of trade frictions all show distinct characteristics of increased exports to certain countries and reduced exports to others.

关 键 词：贸易摩擦 出口偏转效应 第三国效应 贸易策略 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]