国际制裁与目标国技术创新——基于跨国数据的经验分析  

Impact of International Sanctions on Target Countries'Innovation:Based on a Cross-country Panel Data

作　　者：温军[1] 赵欣欣 冯根福[1] Wen Jun;Zhao Xinxin;Feng Genfu(School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2023年第5期79-101,共23页Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“经济制裁对中国技术创新的影响机制、效果及对策——基于省级面板数据的研究”(项目编号:72074176)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文研究了国际制裁对目标国技术创新的作用机制和影响效果,并基于1988—2018年91个国家非平衡面板数据及系列计量方法对理论命题进行了实证检验。结果表明:样本期间,国际制裁显著抑制了目标国技术创新水平的提升,这一结果在更换解释变量、被解释变量、采取不同的模型设定及对内生性进行处理后仍然成立;从驱动因素来看,制裁的发生能够通过减少或取消国际人员交流、阻碍国际贸易和国际资本流动来降低目标国的技术创新水平;进一步分析表明,公共教育投资越多、产业结构越发达以及金融发展水平越高的国家,国际制裁对技术创新的不利影响越小。本文还根据研究结论,就目标国如何应对国际制裁和提高技术创新水平提出了相应政策建议。This paper empirically investigates the impact of international sanctions on technological innovation in target countries and its mechanism by using unbalanced panel data of 91 countries from 1988 to 2018 and conducting series of econometric methods.The results are as follows.(1)During the sample period,international sanctions significantly inhibit target countries'technological innovation.The result is still robust after changing explanatory variables and explained variables,adopting different model settings and dealing with the endogeneity problem.(2)From the perspective of mechanism,international sanctions can significantly inhibit the innovation scale effect and innovation backwardness effect of free trade by reducing or canceling international personnel exchanges,international trade and international capital flows,so as to reduce the level of technological innovation in target countries.(3)Further analysis shows that in countries with more public education investment,more developed industrial structure and higher level of financial development,the negative impact of international sanctions on technological innovation is less.Based on research conclusions,this paper puts forward policy recommendations on how the target country responds to international sanctions and improves technological innovation.

关 键 词：国际制裁 技术创新 国际人员交流 国际贸易 国际资本流动 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易] F115[经济管理—世界经济]