全球金融周期、数字技术发展与双边股票资本流动  

Global Financial Cycles,Development of Digital Technology and Bilateral Equity Flows

作　　者：李兴申 苟琴[2] 谭小芬 Li Xingshen;Gou Qin;Tan Xiaofen(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business;School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics and Management,Beihang University)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院 [2]中央财经大学金融学院 [3]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2023年第5期123-141,共19页Economic Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范研究”(项目编号:20&ZD101);北京市国际金融学会研究课题“数字技术应用对跨境资本流动的影响:风险溢出与管理挑战”(项目编号:BIFSYB202308);北京大学数字金融研究中心课题的支持。

摘　　要：本文基于2001—2021年各经济体间的双边股票类投资头寸数据,探究数字技术作为推动数字经济发展的关键技术,其发展是否以及如何影响全球金融周期对跨境资本流动的冲击。研究发现,繁荣的全球金融周期会推动双边股票资本流动增加。从资本流入经济体的视角出发,数字技术发展增强了其跨境股票资本流入对全球金融周期的敏感性,这一影响在全球金融危机期间开始凸显,危机后得以进一步强化;数字技术的发展会通过降低信息不对称程度进而影响跨境股票资本流入对全球金融周期的敏感性;新兴经济体、高资本账户开放度经济体、金融市场发展更为繁荣的经济体需要格外关注数字技术发展在推动金融全球化进程中带来的全球风险传染问题。Based on the data of bilateral equity investment positions between economies from 2001 to 2021,this paper explores whether and how the development of digital technology,a key technology to promote the development of the digital economy,affects the impact of the global financial cycle on cross-border capital flows.The findings suggest that a booming global financial cycle drives bilateral equity flows.From the perspective of economies with capital inflow,digital technology enhances the sensitivity of cross-border equity inflows to the global financial cycle,which began to be highlighted during the global financial crisis and was further strengthened after the crisis.The development of digital technology affects the sensitivity of cross-border equity flows to the global financial cycle by reducing information asymmetry.Emerging economies,economies with high capital account openness,and economies with high financial market development need to pay special attention to the global risk contagion brought about by the development of digital technology in the process of promoting financial globalization.

关 键 词：跨境股票资本流动 全球金融周期 数字技术发展 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]